Pen made a blog that several factors affect the price, and therefore concluded that: house prices fell quickly to early 09. Many media and friends ask me,
团购导航, do not want to criticize Pen, and he came again to add articles, but also the link in the micro-Bo, fried, quite warming. I'm afraid many people fooled, but to also respond to Pen Huyou.
I also think that prices
third and fourth quarters will fall, long after ten in the country have repeatedly called for appropriate adjustment. In fact, a decline in house prices has occurred, one in the CPI does not rise and the PDI is a high drop out. Second, the opening price greatly reduced, but the index is not reflected in statistics, the price is ignored. The third is a huge price difference between the national, regional supply and demand and economic growth is a big difference, there have been ups and downs in the divide, so will also appear on the index of statistical difference of positive and negative, and zero problems. So there has been a decline in growth in covered up. Fourth, it is localized sales rebound from the impact of falling prices, the rise in some cities is not a precursor to rising house prices but the effect of price cuts.
but the impact on housing prices is not the reason and justification for the views of Pen, Pen may not find the real reason.
First, a large number of affordable housing does not affect the launch of real estate prices, but the credit policy will affect the price. Protection of housing and housing consumption is simply not the same level of protection and more rental housing is based, Vice Premier Li's speech did not even affordable housing, that the government has security practices to purchase housing assets (and perhaps has been the a wrong approach) into a lease-based security approach, which would have been part of the family can not afford commercial housing.
but, like China and countries in the world, no country's housing consumption is not dependent on the support of the credit can be evolved. Many countries have specific individual housing consumer credit policy, the central bank under the jurisdiction of this policy could not help but run independently, it is important that credit can be resolved into the future revenue stream of consumption today, and get in early to lock in prices for value-added benefits. Therefore national housing market, consumer credit policies have become the judge signal flag. On the decisive role of housing consumption, has become the primary factor affecting housing prices.
no matter how many rigid or rigid demand, no consumer credit for housing can not be turned into actual consumer behavior, the threshold of credit, credit for interest rate movements, credit, leverage relationships and so affect the consumer's ability and decision-making, also affect consumer prices, interest rates as monetary policy determines the price of the same funds.
2007 年 9 months after the decline in the real estate market is that consumer credit from the adjustment, many times, and two sets of mortgage interest rate policy so that China's housing consumption appears a huge crisis, and let China's economy is the huge decline, but also determines the market price of housing. The beginning of the year 2008-2009, two sets of interest rate cuts and the adjustment of the mortgage market is to recover and prices. The credit policy of the country ten of price adjustment will again and consumption.
Fortunately, the first suite
lending rates did not increase, and therefore part of the improvement of consumer demand was suppressed under the first set of consumption remained low achievement advantage, and therefore determines the price down to the phenomenon does not occur in early 2008-2009.
Second, the \Pen will be divided into two questions and talk that developers are actually controlled the flow of funds. Indeed this will affect some small real estate company's cash flow and a number of projects in the shattering, make that three of five pot lid buckle flow problems faced by developers, but will not affect the normal operations of enterprises cash flow, but reduced the developer's cost of capital and interest payments.
2008, developed a negative cash flow business is not only a statement of the debt ratio, but also the shortage of bank deposits, and today's debt ratio in the report there is a large number of Days sales outstanding, although included in the liabilities, carrying on the business of cash is sufficient. In July the amount of funding in place and the completion of investment between the more than 1.4 trillion balance, while in 2008 only a few hundred billion, a huge gap between the two. This year's total money supply more than doubled in 2008 fan growth. Sales growth in 2008 than 25% or more. While the overall increase was started or restarted, but the cash flow pressures can slow down the progress and development expenditures to reduce cash flow,
北京团购网, so at least for a period of time the danger will not be broken.
especially at home and abroad this year and 2008 in different environments, at least have greatly improved the external environment, internal growth remains a high speed. 2008 is expected to make most people afraid to spend this year but in expanding consumption. Appropriately lower the price, the sale appeared to pick up, means lower prices can stimulate consumption and recovery of funds. Decrease in 2008 is the price for sales to pick up the situation does not appear, showing the changes in the environment of non-real estate market was unimaginable.
price expectations in the hands of the developer's cash flow break is not reality, this is not the important factor. Growth in the past because of the price is still to developers to cut prices to retain profit margins, so I have been calling the developer appropriately lower prices to maintain market stability.
developers squeeze cash flow from the perspective of achieving the target house prices was tantamount to \retaliatory rebound, hopefully not to this phenomenon.
Third, the situation on the idle land,
团购网, only that the government should rely on work attitudes, and local governments and the central government or that the contradictions between the game and not be interrupted, after all, the local government should take the disposal of idle land supply-side responsibility. While this cleaning is necessary, but the total does not affect the market supply. When developers make full use of idle land development, it will also take cash flow, then it may reduce the demand for new land. Results will not change the total supply of the market, or cash flow problems mentioned above would not be a problem. Is constant in the total funds invested will inevitably affect the development of the old to the purchase of a new earth.
to achieve this year plans to increase the land supply,
团购网站大全, the weakening of sales and marketing from a decline in the amount of the increase can be seen 流拍, as land prices there, like price differentiation, there are up and down, and it may be expected to supply the total amount of land throughout the year and can not do in the market to absorb and digest, maybe even the protection of housing land can not be fully utilized.
therefore not the cause of idle land clearing price volatility factor or direct cause.
Fourth, supply and demand factors that affect the decision of the price, which is an iron law of economics, supply prices will certainly increase in supply and demand balance fluctuations.
after last year's investment growth in September to see, early indicators in the year after the production cycle will turn the market supply, the growth resumed during the first half of this year also fully illustrates this point. So in September this year after supply growth is inevitable. This growth will continue into next year after the opening from the sales area of the total decline in the proportion of return to work also shows that the growth in supply. In the second half of the remaining time, supply is expected to increase by 50% or more, so prices will fall in supply growth.
but in general did not completely reverse the supply and demand, market competition will make this a normal price fluctuation or decline, but not the outbreak of a vicious decline.
especially in China's regional imbalance between urban and regional economic development imbalances resulting from the population difference between the input output and population changes in population and also exacerbated the imbalance between land resources, so in some cities doubling the supply of land, but part of the population entered a serious shortage of urban land is still the situation has not changed. Therefore, the imbalance in economic development there will be oversupply in some cities, some cities and some cities in supply and demand balance is still in short supply, the price will appear in this imbalance are there under the changes, a larger price decline in some areas, some area remained stable, prices are still maintained in some areas rising trend.
It was such a change to the current prices will fall, but will not return to the reasons for the level of early 2009. View from the national housing climate index, house prices in early 2009 the implementation of housing reform in China after the market reform the lowest point, or down to the lows that if the Chinese economy is bound to bottom again, perhaps not the Government, the market , social, and everyone would like to see the phenomenon.
five, according to the U.S., Japan, Hong Kong and other countries in the world economic cycle analysis of the real estate cycle in all the real estate cycle has a clear correspondence between the high economic growth that is not and should not serious decline in the trend of a property.
economic cycle on the real estate cycle
* Simon Kuznets, \
from China since the early 90's, after Deng Xiaoping's southern tour speech of the real estate market, the relationship between change and economic growth also confirmed such a correspondence.
Therefore, more than 8% of China's economy maintained rapid growth,
上海团购, the real estate market should be stable and the growth cycle, this regulation is to maintain steady growth, both to prevent excessive overheating,
qq团购, and prevent the ups and downs. If every big drop when they use 4 trillion of investment and a lot of money to stimulate economic growth will inevitably lead to such fluctuations.
short term before the real estate market in the country under the regulation of ten, would slow investment growth. Increase market supply, increase supply at the same time, so that price stability and falling, the phenomenon will not crash. The past several sales and price fluctuations relations, after the policy will be under the effects of a rebound and secondary cuts are likely, but not in a sustained high economic growth in the fall or crash.
I want to see the role of ten in the country to maintain steady decline in market prices and rapid delivery of 5.6 million sets of security and rental housing. If you can not complete this task of protection of housing construction, it will disappoint the market and the majority of the people and lost the patience to wait. Then the next two sessions will not only solve the problem of housing prices.
please refer to the above comments! Maybe Pen judgments is not correct, please discuss.