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73189 2009 年 08 月 04 日 11:38 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
to the end of July 2009, A shares, Hong Kong stocks, international oil and London copper nearly doubled during the year, the Dow rose nearly 5 months 50% of the maximum, stabilized at 9000 points. Launched in early 2009 the international financial markets, the big move a long time, gains the fierce, rare, almost beyond everyone's expectations. However, a sudden death round of market one day and cause of death in the strange, perhaps more will be beyond expectations.
can not predict the stock market
2009 the international financial market, the big move early crush many people in the industry to see empty glasses. In early 3000, as rising domestic institutions unanimously predicted limit has been exceeded 10%. The Dow is not only no
Today, however, the forecast for the current round of market is still different opinions and incomprehensible.
look at the technical school, a large B wave rally and a new bull market can be described as daggers drawn battle, both supported by the relevant technical indicators, but no one can convince. Technology to send the embarrassment is that a large B wave rally may have a large A wave decline 0.382,0.5,0.682 rebound and other golden bits, and even starting to break down a large A wave of new high point, not only the market can not be the end of the space-time accurate prediction, but a large increase in B waves bounce wave bull market strategy with a completely different, the former should leave to avoid large rallies devastating wave C, which is waiting for the bull market should not move the main shareholders good returns upward move;
the fundamentals camp embarrassment, is a strong economic recovery is expected, inflation is expected to form a turning point in international financial markets, and economic turning point, inflection point inflation data has not yet appeared in sharp contradiction or not recognized, can not be confirmed as the new economic turning point a basis for the bull market started.
policy to send the same awkward, because they can only loose monetary policy has repeatedly emphasized the same countries, the excess liquidity to remain unchanged, the international financial market conditions to remain unchanged, but the same can not predict when future easing of monetary policy changes, because as loose monetary policy to adjust the economic recovery based on the same inflection point when there can not be accurately predicted.
biggest problem is that school can not explain the fundamentals of economic recovery in the international financial markets continued to rise sharply before the contrarian, contrarian in the economic recovery continue to adjust after the sharp correction in embarrassment. Because of economic recovery, loose monetary policy led to excessive release of excess liquidity, market liquidity surplus in the valuation criteria based on the sharp rise once the economy recovers, loose monetary policy tightening, the excess liquidity disappears, the market based on the excess liquidity turn on the valuation standards dropped significantly. School can not explain the policy of international financial markets are likely to loose monetary policy in the context of the ongoing adjustment, a substantial adjustment, for example, in October 2008 collapse of the international financial markets, the Dow dropping as early March 2009 6469 points.
more intriguing is that many practitioners than a decade, the industry experienced senior market is very confused on this round, including a representative of the argument, precisely because so far the global financial crisis, to understand the mechanism does not explain, therefore, regardless of the economic recovery, inflation expectations, loose monetary policy adjustment of expectations, the expected trend of the international financial markets all ... ... the future with great uncertainty and unpredictable.
However, it is all in the future with great uncertainty in the background, the market actually formed three consensus that China will resolutely implement the loose monetary policy; eight of China's economic recovery and security is no problem; the weak dollar and global Inflation is inevitable. Thus, A large share of the market, whether bull or a B wave rally will continue for a long time, a national stock market frenzy is taking shape, the China Securities Registration Company on July 21 released statistics show that as of July 13-17 Nisshin increase the number of accounts rose to 484,799 shares, the highest since January 2008 since the third trading week high of nearly 18 months. New fund accounts, increased to 91,132, a new self-March 2008 the first trading week since the record high.
sum up, whether based on historical experience in the financial markets, or based on the traditional technical analysis, fundamental analysis, policy analysis can not explain and predict surface round market.
this new work the author tries to Lee disk analysis, analysis of international financial markets in 2009 in real terms the bullish market. In my opinion, this market is global excess liquidity and global liquidity dried up in 2001-2008 under the auspices of the international financial market continues to rise with 7 years of crazy crazy fall for 1 year condensed version of the first half.
rare black swan

I believe that the fundamentals of the current round of market-led CBBC neither, nor is it a technical adjustment of the bull market led, bear market rally, but liquidity-driven market. Fundamental or technical-led market led the White Swan, excess liquidity-driven market is the black swan, black swan as not to White Swan.
or technical lead for the fundamentals leading market, as long as the fundamentals (macroeconomic performance of listed companies) is not the turning point, CBBC trend is not reversed; As for the adjustment of the bull market bear market rally, band who can do out of time to master the technical indicators. The excess liquidity-driven market. May drive the dollar yen carry mad Jiancang start at any time, the U.S. dollar yen carry panic plate open end at any time, gave birth to great risk.
view of the current round started in 1664 points the stock market is liquidity driven market black swans, rather than the technical fundamentals of market-oriented White Swan, therefore, the end of 1664 only one key indicator of market liquidity, you can set basic face technical expense. 1664 departure from the market there and the technical indicators, as well as with the fundamental departure from the fundamentals of the economic recovery is expected, inflation is expected to respond to extreme exaggeration, just to prove that it has nothing to do with the fundamentals of black swans technical market. If the market when the White Swan Black Swan market operations, the inevitable price to pay for Black Swan.
liquidity indicators
activities by liquidity flow into domestic and global liquidity. 1664 Quotes excess domestic liquidity dominated the first half of 2009, new loans reached unprecedented Mainland 7 trillion, the equivalent of twice the new loans a year in previous years. Experts estimate that 1.4 trillion in new loans into the A shares, once the mass evacuation of these new loans will be an important signal of the end of 1664 prices.
is worth noting that the second quarter of 2009 with a net outflow of foreign hot money to net inflow from the start into the A shares. According to Zhang Ming of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, short-term international capital flows 3 months totaled 87.9 billion U.S. dollars. Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences Li Youhuan foreign hot money, the project leader, said foreign hot money since September 2008 from a net outflow in May 2009 to net inflows of attention A shares. Foreign hot money into the market in 2500, not the sedan chair for the mainland capital, and foreign hot money in 2007 should lift the heavyweights half of 6124 rose 20% points, the cover exactly the same as Hong Kong stocks withdrawal of hot money.
positive change negative Black Swan Black Swan is a precursor to the amount of days, the negative Black Swan Black Swan positive harbinger of change is in volume. 1664 Black Swan has appeared daily turnover in Shanghai July 20 was another day of the amount of 236.5 billion, close to Shanghai history, the amount of days (May 30, 2007 on turnover of 275.5 billion), the amount of days high price, when they no longer create new heavens and the amount of over 236.5 billion, price not far off. In addition, in October 2007 A shares and the Dow since the HSI peaked simultaneously, more than see the bottom step, therefore, peaked in overseas markets will have a major impact A shares peaked (this view the end of 2007 and early 2008 the author In the
here first concern is the impact of Hong Kong stocks peaked in August. 20,000 points for the Hong Kong stock is not only an important psychological barrier, but also a history of large decreases in the top 0.5 31958-10676 technical resistance, once broken 20,000, a large number of short CBBC will be laid to the dead, July 30 is July constant SOE index finger and the settlement of stock index futures day long on the settlement date will be forced to completely surrender short. This scene with the October 30, 2007 Hong Kong stocks top record 31,958 points, there is great history of great similarities. At that time three months rose 50% see only a dozen major historical trading day after the top, Hong Kong stocks to plunge 20%. Now, five months rose nearly doubled (to 10% margin while the stock index futures contracts, the largest increase up to 10 times), the August Hang Seng Index will not repeat itself turned guns kill bear to kill bulls finished this scene? Hong Kong shares sharply once the adjustment, A shares will be adjusted into the middle.
is worth noting that the dollar index and the yen are now just a dual exchange rate appreciation of the roots of hot money started baton arbitrage major international financial markets adjusted.
arbitrage-led
both super bull market in the first half of 2001-2008, a major adjustment in the second half of 2008, or a big rebound in the first half of 2009, both in May the biggest commodity record monthly rise more than 30 years, five months of oil doubled,ed hardy shop, are inseparable from the mysterious Hand - Dollar Yen arbitrage. Yen carry arbitrage model disk is: can 1: 30 high-leverage, unlimited access to zero-cost currency loans (such as zero-interest rate loans in Japanese yen), after selling in the foreign exchange market to buy high yielding currencies (eg AUD) risk-free interest rate arbitrage. U.S. arbitrage arbitrage model is: You can get negative cost money loan (such as long-term depreciation of the dollar loans), after the foreign exchange market to sell dollars to buy a strong currency (such as RMB), the exchange differences for low-risk arbitrage, high interest rates can also currency, hard currency-related assets, the high-risk arbitrage. Interest rates, exchange rates, capital gains is the manipulation of the three killer arbitrage. But the exchange rate, the impact of capital gains than interest rates. Therefore, central banks interest rate policy does not mean that the international financial market inflection point inflection point inflection point determined by the main international financial markets, the dollar index and the yen exchange rate inflection point, and the interaction between the two formed an instant zoom effect scissors.
been able to reap huge arbitrage profits, because as long as the yen as the dollar currency exchange rate arbitrage (interest rates) is stable or declining, or high-yielding currencies strong currency exchange rates (interest rates) continued to rise, or high-yielding currencies strong currency-related asset prices continue to rise, led to arbitrage were poor, and arbitrage spreads the scissors to maximize space, it will lead to dollar, the yen carry tray crazy to sell dollars, Japanese yen to buy all the arbitrage assets. 2001, Krugman received the Bank of Japan suggested that the quantitative easing policy, July 2001 -2008 yen in March most of the time and down 10 yen at 110 yen in narrow ranges, and accumulated to borrow at 7 years yuan to buy all the yen carry plate; and July 2001 -2008 U.S. dollar index on March 121-70,40% decrease in the seven major adjustment had to borrow U.S. dollars to buy all the dollars arbitrage, resulting in November 2001 -2008 CRB index of 181-614 in July and commodity bull market in 2002 - 2007 bull market in global stock markets.
great risk arbitrage is that the U.S. dollar as the yen carry currency exchange rates or interest rates rise significantly, the international financial markets, high interest rates currency exchange rates or interest rates drop, the underlying asset prices continue to drop,ed hardy outlet, respectively, lead to arbitrage differences (Lee deviation) space,cheap ed hardy, arbitrage minimize the scissors, causing panic arbitrage positions. October 2008 collapse of the international financial market is arbitrage positions from panic.
2009 big move in international financial markets the dollar yen carry the same disk crazy Jiancang classic. In the central banks printing money to save the economy, the global context of excess liquidity, in January 2009 -6 month USDJPY 87-101 continued appreciation of the nearly 20% since March 2009 and the U.S. dollar index from 89 to 78 to 15% decline, and the early start of the international financial market is large market interaction, the formation of scissors benefits, the birth of the large dollar, the yen carry plate, the dollar, the yen carry arbitrage disk is the first half of 2009 Big rebound in global stock markets and commodities rally real power. Similarly, a large international financial markets in 2009 prices, these will be in U.S. dollar yen carry panic plate end of this round of open market.
yen dollar dollar index arbitrage and the yen is at a critical variable disk zone, the dollar index 40-day moving average the following short and medium term moving average convergence in the 78-79 U.S. dollar against the yen of 60-day moving average the following short and medium term moving average convergence at 94-95, facing a breakthrough in the direction of choice in August. Once the dollar as a year ago, the yen rebounded sharply in the direction of both the appreciation of the dollar yen carry panic plate positions, will lead to international financial markets are facing a major adjustment.
often striking similarities between the history, and not simply repeat. Two years later, China's national stock market into a frenzy once again.
A stock build-up number
For when sounded, how sounded, must first understand how the A shares Chong Fenghao sounded.
the stock market peaked in time and space, the amount of the three indexes can be the inevitable result of a harmonious resonance, from the time to read 7-August is the top of the market an important time window; the years 3215-3312 from the space left the upward gap,ed hardy bikini, with a strong resistance, the same time, this position is A share market since 1664 or 1 times the key indicators; can see from the amount of the last two weeks of persistent largest since June 2007 and the week of daily turnover turnover, these are short-term the market has peaked at least a necessary condition for turning point. The heavyweights of Chinese architecture,ed hardy online, Everbright Securities IPO's into full swing, with the recent international financial market has been out of the ongoing madness has hijacked A shares rising tone does not transfer to which the crazy trend Diego high resonance, once the tight monetary policy,ed hardy sunglasses, a thorough investigation credit funds into the stock market introduction of the policy, or the dollar index and the yen continued to appreciate at the same time began to offer triggered a panic U.S. dollar yen carry positions, when the short-term market turning point is likely to evolve into medium-term turning point.


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