利比亚问题与石油：利比亚问题将陷入长期僵局

，谁也吃不了谁。石油价格将长期保持在USD100 以上。油价这波上涨与08年的急涨急跌不同，必定是长期在100美元以上迟缓爬升。
　　2.欧元与日元：10年欧元危机与11年日本大地震后，欧元与日天职别被神秘力气托起，然 后连翻新高,Womens PradaSandals。 无论是从负债程度，仍是从资产回报水平，欧元与日圆都不足以支持现在的汇率水平。笔者以为，有人在制造欧元 与日圆的「堰塞 湖」，特别是日元——缓缓地托起，然后忽然地摔下，以此制造一场大通缩。
　　3. 黄金与白银： 现在买黄金白银就比如5000点进入中国股市，赚钱是小概率事件。这一波黄金为什么会涨？就是为了把油价抬 到USD100以上，进而引爆各国的通胀问题。劝告那些现在还在炒以人民币计价的黄金期货友人最好歇手，由 于以美元计价的黄金涨幅终极会被人民币升值的幅度吃掉。 至于白银么，已经进入了顶部拉升阶段。
　　4. 中国通胀问题： 中国的通胀是输入型通胀：以石油价格上涨带动原资料的上涨，以大批外汇涌入带来本币超发。千万不要信任“2 011年下半年有效控制通胀”的鬼话。以中国央行目前控制通胀的手段：数目型控制（进步存款准备金率）跟本 钱型掌握（加息）无法解决基本问题。摆在央行眼前的只剩下人民币升值这条不归路。
　　中国央行目前控制通胀可用的手段如下：
　　1. 下策： 持续加息加存款筹备金率，国民币继承升值；以行政手腕压力煤电油等因素的价钱，人为压低CPI 。
　　2. 中策： 对热钱涌入预收10-30%的危险计提金，并明白表态必要时推出联系汇率制度。
　　3. 上策： 推广食物券轨制，加大对社会底层的福利投入（特别是是对农业及农夫的补助），对高耗能产品、环境传染产品出 口征收特殊环境税。 同时废弃根据CPI调整金融政策的做法。
　　当初各国的日子都不好过，就看谁先逝世；谁能多坚持5分钟就能博得成功。只要中国不再替美国消化通胀， 石油价格在USD100以上，美国的CPI也就要到达5%左右，美国国会必然举办听证会请求政府把持通胀， 中国的通胀问题也可得到临时化解。只有中国能保持到两房债券全体还本付息，当前美国想用金融手段搞中国将是 难上加难。
　　假如中国政府未能及时调剂金融及财政策略，中国很有可能陷入一场大通缩。
　　第二条相似于金融锁国，第三条类似于让利于民。中国央行那帮人都是被凯恩斯主义及货币主义洗过脑的，他 们又心存幸运不舍得割舍好处，只有到问题极其重大他们才会被动地做出反映。
　　5. 中国楼市：请不要拿中国的M2说事，那些被房地产固化的货币不属于流畅中的货币。在现有的接洽汇率制度下， 以中国政府目前的调控手段不足以节制房价继续上涨，如果哪天中国房价下跌，最大的杀手就是日元。目前中国未 做好应答房价下跌的预备，房价下跌中国则陷入大通缩，实体经济随房地产一起死掉。剧烈的通货膨 胀+ 激烈的通货压缩无疑发布一个国家实体经济的死刑。
　　6. 人民币升值： 这多少年中国股市及楼市玩的都是人民币升值预期。现在欧元及日元被人为托高，如果欧元及日元对美元汇率下跌 30-50%，即便人民币对美元汇率不升值，大家也会感到人民币被高估了，中国股市与楼市还玩的下去么？
　　7. 短期一个主要指标： 看一个月内美联储是否加息。如果美联储加息则表明美国乐意维持目前各国货泉间绝对的均衡，QE所制作的美元 将继续缓慢流入其他国家； 如美国不再一个月内加息，则新印刷的美元会加速流入其余国度， 这些国家的资产价格将会进入最后的疯涨阶段，而后暴跌。
　　8. QE：QE的本质就是印刷新的美元去偿还那些老的美元债务。 会不会有QE3， 我不晓得。 等老美的债权还的差未几的时候天然就不需要QE了。等老美须要为他们的新能源工业搞一次大融资的时候，做作 就会有强势美元政策了。
　　9. 三年后再来反思一下08年的金融危机：为了维持美国政府的及美国大众宏大的财政及福利支出，美元管理者们滥 发美元；为了维持美公民众的生涯水平，他们发明出了不拘一格的金融产品接收那些超发的美元- 这种做法叫“金融立异”。 当金融创新这个花招玩不下去，大量美元行将回流到现货市场造成更大范围的通货膨胀时，美元管理者们人为地制 造了一场“通货紧缩”--也就是08年的那场“金融危机”。其他国家政府被吓坏了，纷纭开动印钞机应对“通货紧缩”。由此，美元变成 了一群被滥发的货币中最不烂的那个；美元危机化解了，其他国家的货币危机降临了。不得不否认，美元治理者们 是一帮哲学家也是一帮艺术家。
　　10. 中国房价与通胀：请大家不要抱怨通胀之祸了，09-10年，哪个中国人的房产不增值了一倍，那么农民出产的食粮是不是也该涨一倍呢？？生平最恶感一边自吹“我 的屋子增值N倍了”一边骂娘“物价又涨了，GCD还让不让人活”的舆论。中国的农夫无奈享受房产增值的快感 ，中国农民无法长期赔本经营。最有权力埋怨通胀之祸的是农民,ferragamo womens shoes。
　　11. 不要抱怨社会制度的分歧理，更不要被洗脑。金融问题的本源在社会制度及文明，单纯看着K线图， KDJ， MACD这些指标做投资就如同看着后视镜开车。难怪索罗斯自称为“业余哲学家”.
　　11. 2013年前投资策略： 如果你有投契才能，则可继续享受这最后的猖狂。 如果你没有投性能力,shoes nike air max，则应当悄悄地等候。笔者预计人民币的历史性光辉将在2012年前停止，人民币的资产泡沫将在2013年前 幻灭,mbt sneakers sale。现在应该开端斟酌跨境投资了。 将来很美，必定很美，条件是咱们还活着。

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Reprinted from 318289666 at 21:59 on March 25, 2010 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: fine Huayi

















exotic scenery landscape painting appreciate

Liu Mao Shan, M, Suzhou, the famous landscape painter, painting, Suzhou Institute.


- Paris glance - tim light landscape
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- Paris street - the domain situation Landscape
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- Paris Autumn - tim light landscape
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- Ba Li Xiaojing - tim light landscape
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- stream (French) - Domain Love Landscape
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- Law Southern Small - Domain Love Landscape
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- floating out the window of the King - the domain intelligence landscape
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- Monte trail - the domain situation Landscape
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- Venice - optical landscape
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- Sifu Zha Castle (Italy) - Love Landscape
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- houses of Tuscany (Italy) - Love Landscape
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- Autumn Photo - Landscape
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- Manhattan Cathedral - Light Landscape
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- light outside Moscow - the domain intelligence landscape
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- City Impressions - Micron Landscape
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- late autumn (United States) - Light Landscape
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- Boston suburb of light - the domain intelligence landscape
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- alley Kyoto (Japan) - Domain Love Landscape
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- Kyoto Flower (Japan) - Domain Love Landscape
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- fall to the new West (U.S.) - Domain Love Landscape
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- Moge street - the domain situation Landscape
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- Sails (USA) - Light Landscape
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- Moge Village Light - Landscape field conditions
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light landscape
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- summer and late autumn the public (Ostrava) - optical landscape
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- Whitechapel (Ostrava) - optical landscape
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- Petersburg Morning - Light Landscape
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- Field (Ostrava) - Domain Love Landscape
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- Ostrava in the winter - the domain intelligence landscape
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- Moscow glance - Domain Love Landscape
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- where the Kobayashi (France) - Domain Love Landscape
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people. But this exotic scenery,cheap lebron shoes, described by the Chinese people, how there is a China's
Yes, in my opinion, this is a charm.
to see these paintings, I kept thinking: foreigners in China,lebron shoes, even wearing cheongsam jacket, or foreign

also passed out. This kind of thing should be deeply rooted in a kind of temperament in the blood of Chinese artists.
only the inner spirit! Implication, to all appearance beyond the ancient and modern, gives off a unique fragrance.
Therefore, clothing is only a make-up, near its shape and much of their God; and consciousness was able to give life another gas
quality. !
Some people say that the Chinese landscape paintings, there is a deserted and cold state.
In these three realms, the physical environment refers to the realm of the natural landscape
, context refers to the realm of life experiences, mood refers to the inner realm of consciousness.
as the leading trend of the first of the literati in China thousands of years, Taoists Qingxudong the aesthetic realm
dominated the consciousness of people. Therefore, the Chinese scholar's pen, mountains and vegetation, the natural good fortune, this reality; built environment due to heart to hand transport
heart, this virtual environment. True or False, in the concrete, the other a spirit singular structure; in the outside world, do not have a free and natural beauty of the
mood.
This is probably a kind of



charm reveries

stress artistically painting, poetry pay attention to charm,lebron james shoes, Authors pay attention to mood, aesthetics pay attention to enlightenment and, in fact,nike lebron, they are all in the charm of Chinese classical aesthetics category.
calligraphy, music, flowers and birds the same way, and intelligent people more elegant charm.
Mei Cui Mountain, light Yanning worry is hidden bitterness, melancholy charm; head with Autumn, the Pro Bo Ying Ying, the affection, the charm Xiao Yi ; abdomen with poetry and gas from China, gestures, reflecting the refined and civilized charm; total affordable wiping thick makeup, visitors feel the unique glittering lake, air mask of charm; Smoke in the desert until , the river down the yen, to show in front of the reader is vast, vast, powerful, magnificent charm.
charm that is implicit, to dilute the meaning of Qingyuan. People write things in the offerings from the concept of not writing things, things from the Road, Road in the matter of tacit knowledge is not that old people always say,zoom kobe v, get the
Yan Canglang of a poem: Park, such as the sound of the air, the color phase, the water of the month, in the mirror image, the words are intended to do infinite Poetry that: Poetry to Actually
relaxed, tranquil charm;
calligraphy, music and the pursuit of charm:
The elegant, nimble charm unprecedented;
Indeed the case.
flowers and trees have charm:
; Samuume Aoxue, fresh bamboo tall and straight, the show is not afraid of difficulties and noble constancy of the charm; lotus floating incense, The Story of Qiu indifferent, is its elegant natural, demure and gentle charm; Peony national colors, rose bloom, is The elegant, rich and elegant charm.
charm in the intelligent people who, reflecting the more remarkable.
metal, wood in the translation of We all know that the body is outside the component. The same as the beauty of woman. Women face a charming natural landscape worthy of appreciation. The speech and deportment, Ningmu stare or even between the lines, poetry and painting reflected in the kind of decent, virtuous Jingya, good tolerance, wealth of knowledge, ability and insight sublime, indifferent to the charm of wit is most appreciated.
charm,lebron james vii, Implications and, rhyme of the body. That it can be felt but not conveyed in words. Those of ancient and modern charm, I am afraid to Fan Wen's Poetry and songs, painting music, people style, are fastidious about charm. In words, there are articles charm, poetry, reading is the imagination, learned a lot, do not change; no charm text is plain, have a look that is forgotten, or even insipid, such as food tasteless.
charm word, representing the Chinese spirit of the times Shun totem culture. According to legend, Confucius was written with the seal character, with carved jade is to carry the top of Guyana. Qi, Qian and other masters of the extension will be under the seal carved in stone on top to ward off evil Ming Chi.
god of charm, is its unspeakable, but one can perceive. During this period of mystery, full of mystery so far, perhaps like the Andes unearthed ancient Maya said the integration of the ray, that the gas field congenial, interactive sensors because of it!