Investment market in 2011 continued in the first q

. Japan's tsunami, the political situation in North Africa, the Middle East situation with insomnia and investors are not easy to use stop order to protect investments. Into April, the situation become clear whether or to continue rising in the midst of anxiety in?

current HSI P / E is only 12 times, the Hang Seng Index dropped significantly the next opportunity on behalf of a very limited, that is supportive of HSI 22000 points very good, as there is no power to break the resistance of 25,000 points is another thing. Once the individual stock estimates in the published results is not as good, they always reduced by 10% to 20%, some frustrating situations.

10-year U.S. housing market that the U.S. bad debt rate in the 4 percentage point to 3.25 between the on and off the PCT. Japanese nuclear contamination incident may result in economic loss to another 10 years (the past 22 years, Japanese stocks hit new lows that the investors who do not know how much damage?) Future renewal fees of up to 3,You used up 21 of 2010,000 billion U.S. dollars. Money come from? Population still do not like Jingzhuang of emerging countries, Japan is already old country, live by the savings, the Japanese had not the City of the next decade, Japan is no longer a big buyer of U.S. debt.

the Dow since March 9, 2009 has been a big rebound began 25 months, an increase of almost 95% (October 1934 through the introduction of new economic policies to stimulate the Dow rose to 8, 1937 end of the month, a total of 35 months. the Dow rise 106%.) The Dow is still 10 months and 10% increase in a rising market? While history repeats itself, but each time the script is different.

improved nuclear power should not be unworthy

calm surface of the Japanese attitude to deceive a minor misunderstanding the situation, imagine a U.S. aircraft carrier pulled away and asked people to leave the Hong Kong Government can see the situation was serious. Japan Nuclear pollution has reached 80 kilometers, involving 200 million residents, the government has been unable to meet the residents told to stay in the house only about 50 million victims have been homeless. Many roads have been destroyed, factories can not produce that many Japanese people can turn to.

uranium used in nuclear power plants in Japan bar weight 400 pounds each, if an incident is difficult to control, whereas a new generation of nuclear power plants use uranium beads (the size of the uranium result table tennis beads, and then to graphite shell protection, the outside filled with inert helium rather than water. such as an accident, the shell will split automatically stop nuclear fission, unlike the Japanese nuclear power plants after the uranium rod itself is still a heated. a lot of new nuclear power plant safety is high, but the construction costs are much expensive.

Mainland construction of 50 new nuclear power plants built most of the above techniques, the old nuclear power plants and Japanese are different. We should not trouble the cessation of nuclear power plants in Japan (as aircraft crash The fear of a plane the same reason.) it should be modified to reduce the threat of nuclear pollution and improve safety, not because of choking and food waste. As a result of investing in stocks is not risky than investment, but to assess the risk and control risks (eg stop loss).

fact, natural radiation accounts for 85% of global total radiation dose, and the remaining 14% comes from human and medical aspects of the building, only 1% from nuclear power plants. reduce the construction of the plant may take to more carbon dioxide, greater damage to the environment. At present, the world's largest natural area is nuclear pollution in southern India Karaka (Kerala), a result of land containing a large number of thorium; followed by Brazil and Sudan.

According to the World Nuclear Organization Studies, these areas of Tokyo 20 times the amount of radiation to 40 times, but the population may not be seriously hurt, so do not too much fuss. nuclear pollution incident, rising coal and natural gas consumption is inevitable. Japan is the biggest drawback refused to admit mistakes, for example, has still not recognize the invasion of China. 20 years of recession, the Japanese still refused to change the economic model, do not understand the poor change, and change to solution of the truth. (demand side to the 1980 U.S. economic model has been changed economic model for the supply side, demand-driven economy to supply-driven economy. iPhone4 is one of the most successful example.)

Guibian Black Swan frequency is difficult to predict the stock market over the past 40

, the global nuclear power plant caused 400 human casualties, more coal, oil and natural gas industry as a small, but due to a very large kernel panic every time, as air crash death toll is less than any of transport, However, after each crash category are very shocked. The nuclear pollution incidents to show the Japanese endurance of all mankind and the Government's incompetence.

since July 1997, the global The shorter and more predictable low, individual shares down in a very short time 30% or more. Retail investors can adapt to such fluctuations in the stock market?

by the August 1997 date, the Hang Seng index increased by an annual average of only 2% of shares held on behalf of long-term has no meaning, but short-term speculation, risk and significant, because no one in the stock market peaked bell, also did not call you in when the stock market bottomed out.

1967 年 to 1997 in Hong Kong want to become a millionaire is to buy property. July 1, 1997, after the handover of sovereignty in this way is unreasonable (2011 average residential property prices in 1997 only to return to July level). since 1998, want to become millionaires in Hong Kong is investing in quality second-line stocks, not all second-line stocks are worth investing in, but since 1998, a number of very pleasant increase in second-line stocks, can provide ten times or more second-line shares profits everywhere. the situation appears not only in Hong Kong, and Japan is also found in the United States. Over the past ten years, far outperforming the blue chips a lot of second-line stocks rise! such as 98 in the second half to the first quarter of 2000 dot com Unit, who has brought amazing Trader profits, from 2001 to 2007, resource stocks are the same. the beginning of 2009 to 2010, consumer stocks, auto stocks with Internet stocks, like the staggering profits. second-line stocks have become the object of investors treasure hunt .

U.S. dollar since 1971 after decoupling with the gold, wealth,Louis Vuitton Sunglasses, hard work and savings by the people everywhere to . the money supply caused by increased credit expansion, soaring prices, the credit bubble burst and lead to deflationary pressure, and then another rise in money supply, the situation began to ... ... repeated over and over again.

when investing into a capture bubble economy, when the explosion, when deflation and when the money supply increased by another game again. The last time the money supply by a large rise in 1971, 72 years of soaring prices, the credit bubble burst to 73 years less than 3 years . In 1974, the money supply has soared, to the soaring prices in 1980 was to the credit bubble burst in 1981, a total of 7 years. most recent in October 2007, the credit bubble burst immediately after the money supply increased in 2010, has a hundred material Tenggui, has been entered the 4th year.

uncertain property market, sluggish U.S. economy since World War

, the United States only once hyperinflation, and that year is the annual CPI increase in 1980 14%, the rest are benign inflation (CPI annual increase is the number of units), that future U.S. inflation, there was little chance of malignancy. Traditionally, the high inflation period, hard assets should be appreciated (including real estate), the United States Real estate chose not to rise, the Hong Kong real estate is the normal reaction, the soft down of assets (such as currency and bonds).

from the October 2007 to date, less than 5 years, the U.S. currency increased by 5 trillion to stimulate the price of gold rose by 110%, with food price of oil has soared, rising oil and food prices caused unrest in many countries. bond king Bill Gross said: If the U.S. government over the past 10 years, only one large enterprise has no people are willing to lend money to it. In the case of bonds widening abyss, he decided to sell all of the United States government bonds.

said inflation generally can be divided into three categories: ① CPI, the Consumer Price Index. such as food, service charges, rents (prices in the United States-based) and so on. ② PPI, namely,Chanel Wallets, the production price index. mainly reflects the raw materials, wages and other costs. ③ asset prices, such as property, stocks, bonds and so on. easing feelings first to influence asset prices, such as October 2008, the Chinese Government launched 4 trillion yuan rescue plan, A-share market rallied immediately, before prices go up again in early 2009 the mainland (usually 3 months later than the stock market to 9 months have a reaction). March 2009 the United States approved the QE, an immediate rise in U.S. stocks, U.S. bond prices also rose, but prices in Q3 2009 was stabilized.

2010 the year the United States Only two property prices in 20 major cities, rising 2%, the rest were down. the worst is the Las Vegas ############, about 70% of the owners into negative equity. property slump is the biggest negative factor in the U.S. economy 2003. The United States is pulling up the property market the stock market, U.S. stocks have risen today to 25 months, but the U.S. property market is still weak. at such a low interest rate, prices are still weak, the situation is worrying some. usually asset prices, the vendors began to PPI increased by increasing purchases of raw materials so that when the consumer market is still weak, companies can increase their production costs onto consumers, the CPI increase is still large.

consumer confidence and property prices from salary

prices,USA Louis Vuitton, rising stock market wealth effect generated, increased consumer spending CPI showed a larger increase in order, start tightening the money supply: for example, in August 2009, China will slow down the rate of money supply rose, so that A-share market started down (usually property reduction in the stock market after the 6 months to 12 months will be dropped). The reason for Mainland price has not been dropped because the U.S. launch of QE to end until March 2010, followed in November 2010 launch of QE2 to this year again June until the end. external factors that mainland prices to keep rising. the stock market,Louis Vuitton Outlet Online, consumer confidence down property prices, manufacturers began to reduce raw material inventory that PPI drop in retail price promotions last fall that CPI increases.

China tightened money supply by the August 2009 start (but very mild), met the United States in June 2011 before the still relaxed the policy divergence between the two countries since the 2010 formation of the financial market is very confusing. Japan after the tsunami, a substantial increase in government yen also offset some of the supply impact of monetary tightening in China, for example, PPI has not yet come down.

the record, the largest increase in U.S. CPI in January 1980, the highest interest rate in September 1981, at V Park efforts, since 1982 the United States into a long period of disinflation, that long-term interest rate increases in the CPI 2 or more determined to bring bond bull market, U.S. stock market since August 1982 have entered since the bull market. this direction has been maintained through 2001 911 years after the incident occurred, with the Beining Qi Greenspan worried about deflation in the United States until a similar change in Japanese policy. the United States into further expansion of (reflation). 2002 Since there commodities, bonds, property prices, the stock market are rising; U.S. prices peaked in 2006, the stock market in 2007, oil prices in 2008, Bond 2009 ... ....



1982 年 8 month of the super bull market in U.S. stocks in 2000 has ended. October 2002 to October 2007 for 5 years, Dallas City, through lower interest rates, the dollar stimulus created by the rising property prices; March 2009 began to rise in the Dallas market is created through the QE and QE2. (in the 1966 to 1982 the U.S. stock market have super bear market there were several in the Dallas market.) dollars if the unit does not switch to gold pricing,img104.ph.126.net, you can clearly see the Wall Street bull market ended in 2000.

Dow by the October 11, 2007 of 14,198 points, down to the March 6, 2009 of 6469 points in support of QE and QE2 back to 12,419 points before the completion of 78% decline, that is the biggest bear market rally. What will happen? Price movements influenced by supply and demand far more than the proliferation of this money long-term factors. extreme examples,Prada Handbags, such as color TV sets since 1971 and has not been affected by rising money supply increase but decline in value, long-distance telephone charges since the franchise in Hong Kong after the abolition of the telephone company have fallen sharply and a ticket to the United States over the past 40 years has rarely increases.

monetary factors only make the United States the average annual inflation rate rose by 3% (net of productivity increase in the money supply increases, inflation is remaining rate). But things are not so simple. 1990 in Japan,Gucci Online USA, because people lose confidence in the future, they will be down for a rainy day savings income, the Japanese consumer market into negative growth. Over the past 20 years, no matter how much the Japanese government to increase money supply, most of the time the Japanese economy still in deflation. 1997 to 2003 in Hong Kong have a similar situation. ① wages from rising consumer confidence; ② rise in property prices and the stock market. If neither increased between the two, and even money supply rises, inflation rate does not rise; the other hand the Government to adopt tight monetary policy, coupled with the salary increase, driven by rising property prices with the stock market (especially property prices), inflation rate will rise.



1978 年 to 2007, China's advantage is to have labor cost advantage since 2007, gradually lost (a lot of emerging countries cheaper labor than China). 2010, advantages of cheap land are lost. the situation in the past have occurred in Japan in the Asian Tigers have occurred, occurred in China today is very natural. these countries or regions to replace the and electronic products to automotive, how much is China's Foxconn (2038) margin of only 5.91% in 2009 to provide branding and design of Apple's gross margin was 40% in 2009, is 6.8 times Foxconn. 2010 years and rising wages, Foxconn, but no bargaining power and want to raise prices (such as fare increases, Apple orders will be transferred to other plants),Chanel Handbags, only bear most of the upward pressure on costs, the 2010 loss of 200 million U.S. dollars there, but Apple's gross profit margin in 2010 was 40%. to offset the rising cost pressures, Fuji Kang moved their production bases only lower wages in inland areas.

Japan and South Korea successfully transition from the foundry

In Japan, South Korea, early stage of development is establish their own brands such as Sony, Panasonic, Toyota Motor, South Korea's Samsung, LG and so on. Today, the brand is still not open China to foreign markets (only popular in the Mainland), not have their own brand of business to have no bargaining power, how to enhance hair interest rates? will be the next biggest problem facing China's economic development.

2010 annual profit 17.3 billion CVRD, BHP Billiton profit 17 billion U.S. dollars, 14.3 billion Rio Tinto profit breakdown of the global mining 1 2,3 name, the other hand, 77 steel plants in China add up to only 14.3 billion profit. three international mining companies profit margin of 42.45% (ie, 100 to do business, profit 42.45 yuan.) marginal iron and steel plants in China 77 profit margin is only 2.91% (ie,Coach Messenger Bags, 100 to do business, profit 2.91 yuan). The first 20 are still profitable, the other steel plant is a loss if not done for nothing. China Steel to pay for the cost of environmental pollution is very large, China steel plant on the face of overproduction simply have no bargaining power. Many have both state-owned steel plants and mineral resources, the problem is still not large, private steel plants and mineral resources because they did not suffer a great deal.

vigorous development of steel industry, the results Foreign mining companies are making big money, but in return their own environmental pollution. This is the painful price for disorderly competition is also the Chinese people >
the Chinese government can still use tariff to protect domestic market (in the past the Government of Japan and South Korea to do so), but the development of export markets, consumer confidence must be established, shall start from the quality, and through successful marketing strategies to build brand,Do not understand the many products, or Chinese companies can only make 5% of the gross margin, foreign companies are earning 40% gross margin. can not be established brand or market, Chinese enterprises will always remain in the >
■ Thank you, Mr. Pan Guoshun 5000, Miss Pan Yaner 2,000 yuan, 1,000 yuan Miss Pan Yanmei, Lau Chi Fung, Mr. and Mr. Huang Shuwei 2,000 500, after a certain number of collections on behalf of the Meeting.