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do this today, not the same as in previous speeches, specially prepared an outline today, breaking the tradition. The reason is that I do not like media coverage, when such a major issue to me was wrong, so the outline of the right to everyone to give you an outline put forward my views. In an hour's time I speak in accordance with the requirements of our agenda, we are most concerned about the topic, that is, in 2007 our economy in the end how it was. This is my opinion of the eight economic crisis, before I discuss this topic I think this topic to our media industry is very important. I could say, the media reports do not grasp when there is a central idea, the implementation of our national policy is what kind of attitude. Make a report to its pure, it is better to do brainstorming various mining claims, which is an objective media to achieve the goal. In line with my remarks today, I own one of the words presented, I think our status quo of China's economy, an integrated conclusion. Today, we are concerned about the macro-control a project, I am today, the policies implemented by the Government I have a concluding statement. I want to take a Chinese medicine knowledge to answer, that we had today, as China's economy, like pneumonia, according to TCM theory, treatment of pneumonia and use a large cooler, if we really cool with a large treatment the patient is likely to die Because he is a weak constitution, the best way to be warming, our foundation, and physical fitness after the last to put up with a large cooler to treat pneumonia. Today, we all macro-control policies, including financial policy itself, why can not solve the foam problem, the problem of inflation, the main reason that I speak in front of his treatment of pneumonia with a large cooler. And my proposal is to consolidate, I explained my thoughts in order, I have to be discussed under the eight major crisis eleven.


first major crisis of macro-control goal I think is wrong, we are the stock market bubble in the property market to see what reason? Is the Government about the excess liquidity caused it? I think it is wrong! The overall situation of China today is very complex, not a simple excess liquidity, I think the most impact is due to investment in the country in recent years, the rapid deterioration of business environment, so we should invest instead of entrepreneurs to invest squeeze money out of the formation of virtual funds into the stock market into the property market. This is I think the most important first round of financing - the virtual funds. The second sum is a large area of ​​corruption in the current corruption under a lot of money into the property market and the stock market, and the third sum is well-known international hot money you, the fourth fund is our people's savings deposit. All current macro-control policy is basically the funds for the third and fourth. I, for example, foreigners can not buy a house for the third requirement is capital, the second mortgage for the fourth problem is the money, I can not say for the third fourth is invalid, but your goal is wrong. All our policies are not addressed first, and that is because the investment environment and the rapid deterioration of squeezing out the virtual money has poured into the stock and property markets it? We have no money to enter the property market for the corruption phenomenon regulate it? There is no regulation of these two funds, so the strength of our macro-control is insufficient, because you have the funds for the wrong direction. This is what I made the first crisis.

second crisis is how we do control? This regulation gives us the current economy a serious financial risk, which is a substantial increase in financial risk. I want 90's bubble in Japan and China, now the bubble to be compared. You all should know that the Britain, Germany, France, United States, Japan has signed off the At that time the Japanese government after it signed an agreement clearly fell into the American trap. The reason is simple, when the Japanese government signed the word, that yen will appreciate. Then the world of international speculators will buy Japanese yen, because he bet on yen appreciation. We do not write the exchange rate as economic phenomenon, not a textbook on the exchange rate between the currency defined by the price, not so simple, the exchange rate is the governments the means to achieve political ends! When Japan signed the The day the Japanese government signed the international speculators around the world to proclaim to the appreciation of Japanese yen, so the inevitable result of a large number of international hot money into Japan. Results Japanese yen appreciated! You think that money as general commodity the same? To balance supply and demand after the price increase it? Wrong, that the price of goods in general, but the exchange rate is not, when the exchange rate the price of a rise in international speculators look, wow! Really appreciates, buy, more money into Japan, and then force the appreciation of Japanese yen, more hot money into Japan, and then force the Japanese yen appreciation, a few years down the yen appreciation has doubled, almost destroyed the Japanese economy. But you note that there is a phenomenon we have neglected, and that is in the process of the appreciation of Japanese yen, the U.S. Treasury Department pressure Japan through various channels to lower interest rates and the relaxation of credit, lower interest rates as the result of relaxation of credit, resulting in mobility flooding, major Japanese trading companies are happy to borrow from the bank, because borrowing money is easy, low interest rates, and can quickly become bigger and stronger, so the surface caused by the economic prosperity of Japan. This phenomenon reflects the surface prosperity of the stock market bubble in the stock market is reflected in the property market bubble in the property market is reflected in the purchase of daily necessities is inflation. Therefore, the appreciation of the yen, the stock market bubble in the property market and inflation itself is due to the pressure in the United States caused by caused by excess liquidity. So read a lot of media coverage recently, said the more correct the problem, so that we the Chinese government for the current RMB exchange rate appreciation, the stock market bubble, housing bubble and inflation should be and doing exactly the opposite of Japan's policy was s, that is raising interest rates to tighten credit. Clearly here to tell you, they are wrong. Because Japan's problem is excess liquidity, but today is not China's problem. China is the problem? As I mentioned earlier, the basic cause of the bubble caused by investment in the business environment due to rapid deterioration, and therefore squeeze out a lot of virtual money has poured into the stock and property bubble. As for different reasons, the government's macro control policies must be different, but unfortunately, our policy is to raise interest rates tightening credit, resulting in the result? It is a further blow to the already deteriorating investment environment. Interest rates have been increased by 6% or more, in recent days has also increased interest rates. So you put yourself think for our entrepreneurs, do you think he was under such an occasion would also like to invest? Which China's manufacturing industry can create such a high profit, the bank forced to raise interest rates to give up our investment in the manufacturing industry, do not do, and the investment should not invest money for stock speculation to the formation of virtual money, so Why do stock prices under macro-control more reason for rising prices is because more up macro-control target is wrong. As and when Japan is not the same. We are not caused because of excess liquidity bubble, but because the investment and business environment is deteriorating rapidly. Today, of course, I do not deny the phenomenon of excess liquidity in China, but China has excess liquidity in the property market bubble is not the main reason the stock market, but the real driving factor is that China's investment in the business environment caused by the rapid deterioration. Then there is no clear understanding of economic problems, economic ills and sought to raise interest rates, tight money, you know what result? With rising interest rates make the rapid accumulation of financial risks in China, once a day can not afford, China has had a major crisis. Then look at how Japan is going on at the time, when Japan's major trading company loans due to low interest rates sharply, while the Japanese companies operating rapidly due to the high debt accumulated a large number of financial risks can not afford to stage a production of the bubbles collapse, so Japan's economic crisis from the financial risk, that is, the accumulation of liabilities arising from financial risks. Today, China's economic crisis? Part of policy making from the undue raising interest rates continue to tighten monetary, financial risk and to generate the economies of major crisis. This is why I in 2007 at the end of a so-called neutral scholars and writers I had to make the following conclusions that I fully support the idea of ​​the CPC Central macro-control, because I think that macro-control is necessary, but I object to our the level of implementation of financial policies pursued since his goal is wrong.

crisis is the third largest, after the mid-90s from all over our local government as the key link to the concept of GDP, resulting in a unique binary China economic phenomenon. Will you read the recent media reports, media reports said today China's economy is overheating, but I ask you again to ask you ladies and gentlemen, entrepreneurs, and their life easier it? Their day is every day sad. No matter who he is, no matter what business he was engaged, no matter where he, his day of this year, definitely better than last year's sad, sad than this year and certainly next year, this is certain. Since the day so sad, so how could the economy overheating it? However, our index indicates overheating of the economy, how the case? That is my theory, the Chinese economy is a phenomenon of dual economy, the Chinese economy is overheating while at the same time cold, those departments overheating it? That is our local government to GDP as the key link of the concept, he is overheated investment in the construction of the relevant departments, such as steel, cement, real estate is overheated. What sector is it too cold? Most of the private enterprise is too cold. This phenomenon can be said dual economy phenomenon unique in the world, even China is likely to emerge only in, and the reasons for this phenomenon is more than a decade our GDP as the key link to local governments to vigorously promote the idea of ​​the results of local construction . Then the last ten years, we the people of the health care of coverage, not afford school fees, who can not afford housing, retirement can not afford to rest how to do it? Before the congress is unlikely to be concerned about it. Which is not a local government building bridges and paving the way disembowelling, calling out the local construction, in fact, a fortune for promotion. Are based on the assessment of cadres, GDP for the assessment standard, but more seriously, in this evaluation standard, the local officials to promote the building of the results is to make our economy produce this special dual economy phenomenon is related to the construction and The department is basically overheating, and construction of private enterprise is basically unrelated to cold. Then this phenomenon of dual economy and our stock market twenty-eight economic phenomena are very similar. Why twenty-eight stock market phenomenon ah? What is the large cap it? You find that our large-cap stocks and is related to overheated sectors, such as the last real estate, steel, cement and other financing banks are hot, so the stock market twenty-eight phenomenon and our dual economy is basically correspond The. So in this particular under the dual economy, will produce two inevitable results:
first result is further macro-control failure, the second result will generate inflation. Then I one by one to illustrate. Why
macro will fail, and why the overheating overheating sectors, he is not economic reasons, but political reasons, it is to promote the mentality of GDP as the key link result in overheating sectors overheating. So what is the purpose of macro-control? Is to use economic means to control the overheating, but the overheated political reasons, you will have the economic means to control the problem. Problem? For example, when the central bank to raise interest rates to 0.25% percentage points, the local government because of higher interest rates and not to engage in building it? According to engage in that will not stop, still building bridges and paving disembowelling not stop, why? To improve the GDP! Raise interest rates is that he still does not stop borrowing money from banks, then the department gets it too cold, too cold is basically a private enterprise sector, and most of the funding sources of private enterprises is the underground financial, commonly known as the black market, black market finance, interest rates are very efficient, very sensitive, according to my research shows that his adjustment to 4 times the official rate, which is 0.25% after the central bank to raise the black market rate increased by 4 times, increased by 4 times the result is a further blow to the private business sector has been depressed. In my previous theoretical point of view, interest and you hit them, what do they do? In such a deteriorating business environment, under the investment he did not want to invest, and will squeeze more money into the overheated sectors of virtual stock speculation. Cold sector due to capital outflows, the results of colder, overheated sectors accepted his money because more heat. So the more macro phenomenon of China's dual economy more prominent, and this is why we have the more our macro-economic data shows that the Chinese economy more heat, this is the cause of overheating. Is not all part of the sector overheating overheating, and you continue to follow the words of macro-control targets, dual economy will be more severe.
will certainly have a second inflation. So the end of 2006 agricultural harvest, according to economic theory, of course, these theories can not be used in China, are the opposite! Grain harvest of agricultural products in accordance with economic theory, prices should fall on it, can be a month, grain prices rise, it is caused by the dual economy. How caused it? Then you remember what I just said a large amount of heat from the cold department to department, all cold sector lack of funds, lack of funds how to do it? Government printing money, printing money the result overall inflation. So this time the problem of excess liquidity out, making the grain and oil prices rose in January, rising by as much as 20%, to May rose 26% the price of pork, eggs up 37% until November we have today, The 20% increase from our rose 60%, then the recent increase is still high. In other words, when you eat it, bite the meat Chiyikoufan to pay 50% of the money, he does not like washing machines, TV sets, as the old look on it. Eat 3 meals a day, this increase is incredible. According to the current statistics, you have the money to buy food then it is now up 50% of the bar. So it is such a serious inflation is how to daily necessities, and basically told me the dual economy and the reasons for virtual money. Pork, for example, why do we talk about the price of pork rose? There are two reasons, first is the classical swine fever, even today in 2007 will produce the phenomenon of classical swine fever, showing how local government is dereliction of duty, the control of classical swine fever can not rely on the farmers. This must be the government action, local governments are now grasping the construction of the control of the disease he has not really care about, and this is why classical swine fever in 2007 will have the reason. The second is pig feed prices. Classical swine fever and swine feed prices make pigs of private entrepreneurs to invest the business environment is deteriorating rapidly. According to my theory, investment under the rapid deterioration in the business environment for private entrepreneurs pig will do, he should put the money investment is not squeezed out of the formation of investment funds into the stock and property markets virtual, we examine the pork The reason is the rising price of pigs slaughtered after the big So do not raise pigs, just like you, like stock market speculation goes. This is what we just talked about the dual economic and virtual money to fully explain the reasons for the recent inflation, the dual economy is the essence of GDP from the local government as the key link to the concept of the evil consequences. This is my third so-called economic crisis.

fourth largest crisis of local government as the key link to the concept of GDP caused by the imbalance of the entire economic structure. We think about our local governments built highways, elevated, rail is more than fixed investment. He is the number of fixed investment cost, I want to take our country and make a comparison before the collapse of the Japanese economy, our share of fixed investment accounted for 45%, while Japan was 30%, consumption accounted for 35% of us, while Japan accounted for 58%. Such a large amount of investment, domestic consumption is inadequate. So domestic consumption can not, our annual 10% economic growth, create so much economic, commodity sell to it? Sold to foreigners it! This caused a lot of trade surplus. Then the share of the Japanese trade surplus accounted for 4.5% of GDP, while China is 9%, and local governments for the export of their thinking is wrong, is called export. Exports, in my opinion is a synonym for evil, the export is to take profit on our limited resources to foreigners. For example, a lack of resources in China that the country dared to sell the Japanese coal, the reclamation of the Japanese take it. Even cut our trees have no value to make chopsticks sold to Japan, Japan why not cut your own trees? He would not do that stupid, he will not do damage to resources to do, to who did it? To the Chinese people do! You use coal, chopsticks and other value-added things without bloodshed must be devalued to earn foreign exchange, under the pretext that export is actually a synonym for evil. Local governments as the key link in the GDP based on the idea of ​​the concept of export imbalance in our country's economy, resulting in a substantial trade surplus. We have up to 1.4 trillion trade surplus to 1.4 trillion if you are proud of that 1.4 trillion is the inevitable result of a wrong policy. What result? To the oppression of Europe an excellent opportunity for appreciation of the renminbi. Today, I can not think of any reason why our government continue to appreciate the RMB. RMB appreciation is what I call the inevitable fourth economic crisis.

fifth largest crisis
I'll be in front of the four integration crisis, a rise in interest rates, A macro is wrong cause interest rates rise, the local government the wrong policy and GDP as the key link of the export policy has led to the rise in the exchange rate. Financial parameters of the two companies have increased making it difficult to maintain the livelihood of our investment in the business environment continues to deteriorate gradually bleeding to death. You see what our life easier export-oriented manufacturing, and he is sad every day. So he will not invest, so he will do as I said earlier the investment should not invest money squeezed out of virtual money into the property market, then you may ask me, in the end the number of virtual money ? Tell you a number of entrepreneurs that we should invest the money without investment than Europe and America, 80% into the stock market the property market a bubble. A rising bubble in the exchange rate is more serious, and the surface looks like the Japanese at that time, where that reason is very complex. Chinese entrepreneurs are not investing to the stock speculation. I would like you to think about a problem, you should invest without investment, the investment in space to who had it? This empty space down the inevitable for foreign use. Interest rates rise in the exchange rate caused difficulties in the business environment, the inevitable result of foreign capital into China to provide an excellent opportunity, gentlemen, look at our private entrepreneurs, companies that sell and sell the factory signs are everywhere, is due to investment in the business environment difficult. This is my fifth so-called crisis.