通胀仍是通缩 这是个问题

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通胀还是通缩?这是个问题
管清友
这一次,中国经济是真的到了一个十字路口.
金融危机之后,中国敏捷出台了四万亿经济刺激规划,"挽狂澜于既倒",既改正了危机之前国内宏观经济政策失 误,也抵抗了全球金融危机的宏大冲击.这一政策是胜利的,形势弛缓了,经济实现V型反转.2010年一季度 以来,"事件正在起变更".
从外部环境来看,通缩迹象似已出现.欧洲主权债务危机蔓延,欧元区经济呈明显收缩态势,欧元对美元大幅贬值 .欧元区通胀率低位彷徨,一些国家甚至出现了负通胀率.长期看,欧元区必需进行苦楚的结构调整,紧缩债务和 赤字才干渡过这一灾难.因此,欧洲经济的压缩,欧元的长期走软,远景已可预期.美国节制货币远比我们做的更 好,我们现在绝无资历批驳美元的泛滥,至少从金融危机之后的情况来看是如此.美国同样需要进行结构调整,压 缩债务和赤字,但境况仿佛比欧洲稍强.美国的月度CPI增速在金融危机之后走了一个V字型,去年12月到达 阶段高点,目前同比呈下降趋势.核心CPI则急剧下滑,美元流通速度显著下降.只管不能完整确定,但中国经 济发展的外部环境似已出现了通缩迹象.世界经济行将进入笔者提出的"债务资产周期":收缩的经济环境和货币 环境有利于债权人,不利于债权人,出现国债牛市,资产熊市.
从国内环境来看,中国现在的经济局势能够归纳为通胀隐忧下的经济压缩.看似抵触,实则必定.为何有通胀隐忧 ?首先是天量的货币供给,通胀是个货币景象,货币总要寻找一个出口.但这种情况在中心一系列调控政策跟打击 投契举措之下,越发不可能.其次,中国的货泉泛滥与欧美不同,是在经济刺激打算的领导下,从银行体系进入了 市场中.而欧美的情况则是,大批的流动性滞留在银行系统,不进入市场.再次,因为天下大乱,局部农产品涌现 缺乏,物价上涨.而三季度的七八月份,也是中国传统的洪涝灾祸最为重大的时代,对农产品价钱必有影响.加之 制作业劳能源本钱上升,asics gels,海内煤电油气价格皆有回升趋势,因而,通胀恐不仅仅是隐忧,而是正在缓缓变为事实.
又为何是经济收缩?其因有三:第一,今年一季度以来,鉴于外部经济形势有所好转,很多国家行"退出"之策. 中国政府亦进行微调,收紧货币和信贷.孰料这次福气差些,刚好遇上欧洲主权债务危机蔓延,内外压力齐至,所 谓多重因素叠加是也!近年来政策多由摇晃,加之外部环境渐变,判断多有失误之处,政策不断定性遂成经济增长 之一大风险.
第二,房地产调控政策已经过初始之"遏制房价过快上涨"演化为全面打压,亦演变为一个"体面"问题,不达降 价之目标毫不罢休.房地产成交量萎缩,购房者持币张望,势必影响固定资产投资.而保障性住房以及旧城改革等 投资在趋紧的货币环境下未必可能补充商品房投资降低留下的缺口.政府再次出台"非公36条",盼望民间投资 接续上政府主导之投资的效率,但短期内恐难施展作用.公信力弱化,看淡将来经济,有可能是导致民间资本对新 政策并不热忱的重要原因.近期看,投资下滑迹象显明,花费增长亦不安稳而呈微幅下降趋势.如果年末投资增速 下滑至20%,则经济又危矣!
第三,出口难以再现昨日光辉.金融危机之后,外部环境恶化,出口下滑.拜我们固执地保持人民币盯住美元之政 策所赐,欧元对国民币亦大幅贬值,中国对欧出口急剧降落,东南亚市场和拉美市场短期亦无法接续欧美市场.顺 差减少成为外汇占款减少之主要起因,国内货币环境进一步收缩.近期上海银行间同业拆放利率(SHIBOR) 大幅上扬已显示出银行间流动性之缓和乃至短缺.名义是流动性多余,实则流动性短缺,犹如一个人吃的太多而无 奈消化.
拉动经济的"三驾马车"皆有熄火嫌疑,但目前尚无法预计到何水平.故在通胀背景下,还无法称之为"滞胀", 然其状态与"滞胀"相似.中国正在为片面寻求经济增加付出代价.假如处置不好,经济极有可能"补跌".实际 证实,以货币推升的经济不会具备连续增长的动力.新的工业和经济增长点也许轻易寻到,难的是让经济存在自我 调剂才能和增长的原动力.人民币汇率改造的中心不是升值或贬值,而是让人民币恢复弹性,体现市场意志.在汇 率改革问题上,从前的情况是,形势好的时候认为不须要大的改革,情势恶化的时候以为不是改革的机会.然而, 如果硬撑到保持不下去的时候被迫放开汇率,那么必然会出大问题.亚洲金融危机时期东南亚国家在汇率问题上教 训不可不察.
也有可能的是,中国发生与欧美雷同的情况:因为实体经济投资缺少吸引力,没有好的投资范畴,大量资金从房地 产、股市和农产品市场撤出,货币回流到银行系统.银行也增强危险把持,再次出现"惜贷"气象,企业融资艰苦 ,则中国经济陷入通缩的可能性也不是没有.一旦预期发生变化,市场主领会抉择持币观望,奉行现金为王,人民 币流畅速度将会大幅下降,通缩预期自我实现.现在看来,通胀威逼事小,通缩要挟事大.此判断乃是"大是大非 "之断定,如果处理不好或判定失误,则经济有陷入万劫不复地步之可能.
如罹患"滞胀"或通缩病症,则需全面和强力的大手术方可挽回生命.因此,此次中央强调之构造调整意思不凡. 成败在此一举.
基础面如斯,事不宜迟是要警戒产生外部冲击的导火索.欧元走弱,golf polo shirts,美元走强,寰球资金大有回流美国市场之势.以往教训告知咱们,美国加息周期往往引发国际资本回流,引发一 些发展中国家金融市场动荡.至今,未见有发展中国度呈现问题.兴许是荣幸,也许是未到时候.这一情形与常识 不符.据说当初已有一些国际金融机构虎视眈眈地想要做空中国,对此不可不防.
中期看,美元强势或是中国经济之伟大压力.美国通胀率如此之低,tods handbag,美国加息之策料将延后.但这并不妨害资本回流,原因在于美元的强势.依据市场经验,如果美元站稳90之整 数关口并维持在此之上,则象征着世界局面大反转,全球通缩时期降临,萧条经济学回归.
届时,air jordan shoes history,大批商品价格蒙受重压,产油国一片哀歌,资源为王的理念要让位于现金为王的理念;股市、楼市萧条,国债市 场火爆;资本大量回流到美国,美元资产从新受到青眼,美国金融市场再次繁华,或能催生出新的产业和经济增长 点;矿产、资源和制造业主导的经济模式让位于基于常识和技巧的新经济模式,新的贸易模式应运而生,制造业国 家将承受重压.这些场景对中国而言,是福,仍是祸?或者这要看你如何去对待.
作者系宏观经济学者,长策智库全球宏观经济政策特约研讨员
文章观点发表于第一财经日报
http://www.cnstock.com/index/gdbb/201006/584101.htm

(Reporter Zhang Wei of China) from Anhui Sun Zhilan before the death of the elderly in rural areas the decision of his life savings to 20 million of money donated to the disaster areas. Yesterday afternoon, in the Haidian Foreign Language Experimental School,tory burch handbags, the elderly mother of two sons in accordance with the wishes, will be donated to the school all her savings and set up Sun Zhilan scholarships to encourage baby Sichuan in Beijing to study hard. It has been since July 2008, the school students in Sichuan biggest individual donations received.
the seismic image, his son said something like this. At that time, 74-year-old Sun Zhilan was found suffering from lymphoma two months, she is an ordinary Taihe County of Anhui Province, rural women, is also mother of three sons and three woman. June 22 last year, the old man died.
5 pm yesterday, Sun Zhilan elderly family members came to the Haidian Foreign Language Experimental School, there are 98 students enrolled in Sichuan. Hundreds of teachers and students in the witness, the two sons of the elderly will be 20 million check presentation to the school. The money is for the elderly life savings. Subsequently, the projector starts playing old videos of his lifetime, a student raised his right hand from the disaster area, gently wipe the tears of his eyes.
relevant person in charge of the school year in April, the school received a telephone elderly relatives,tory burch bags, after school, hit home for education department students and the elderly children of tripartite consultation,tory burch shoes, the final decision to establish a scholarship Use of the elderly in the form of their life savings in order to fund and encourage baby to enter the school hundreds of Sichuan University for further study.
this scholarship in two stages. The first stage is enrolled in the school of these children during the disaster,tory burch wedge, will be used to reward outstanding students. July and August next year, hit the child returned to the local school, the school will be sealed scholarships.
■ Sidelights

. Microplitis said his mother lives bitter, less than one year old his father died, the first half frustrations, and ate the suffering did not read the book.
Microplitis said that in 1974, he was preparing in high school, 6 dollar fee unhappy bad mother, that the hand in half the money even if have to keep reading.
2000,tory burch flats, the family's living environment has improved, but the old man to eat for a lifetime suffering,tory burch pumps, life is still very economical. Microplitis said that 20 million of money, is the mother of a little bit of life saved.
the brothers living in different cities, has been difficult to meet, until the Ching Ming Festival this year, they decided to complete the mother's wishes in this way. Microplitis said,