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Consumer confidence in Italy rose to its highest in 2 1/2 years in August on signs that household spending is benefiting from falling prices, signaling the economy is recovering from its worst recession in six decades.
The Isae Institute’s consumer confidence index climbed to 111.8 from 107.5 the previous month, the Rome-based research center said today in an e-mailed statement. That was the highest since March 2007 and exceeded a median estimate of 107.9 by 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“The overall sense is that the economy is moving toward a recovery,” said Paolo Mameli, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA in Milan. “The spike in inflation last year brought confidence to a record low. Since then prices have been falling and consumers have grown more confident.”
The slump in demand and falling energy costs led to the first annual decline in consumer prices in at almost 50 years in August. Italy’s economy will expand in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year on growing demand for Italian exports, Isae said on July 23. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product, may recover this year, retail association Confcommercio said.
On July 8, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi declared that the crisis had passed,tod to mpg,todscrysis todtods, and he has repeatedly urged Italians to ignore talk about the recession because it fuels the slump. Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi yesterday said the worst part of the global economic crisis is probably over.
Italian retailer Tod’s SpA, a shoemaker, yesterday said its first-half profit rose to 41.9 million euros ($59.8 million) from 40.7 million euros in the same period last year.
Based on “signals from our stores in the last few weeks, I think the second part of the year should bring us good results,” Chief Executive Officer Diego Della Valle said in a statement.
The Italian economy is being helped by demand from its two biggest trading partners, France and Germany, which both unexpectedly emerged from their worst recessions since World War II in the second quarter. German consumer optimism rose to a 15- month high in September,Tods Sneakers,todstods shoestods, a report showed today, and business confidence gained for a fifth month, a report yesterday said.
The euro-region economy still shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter, sapped by the 0.5 percent contraction in Italy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said August 19 that even with the improvement in Europe, the Italian economy will shrink 6 percent this year.
Today’s report showed that Italians were more optimistic about their personal economic situation than they have been in 7 1/2 years,toda hebreutods online shoptods online shop, and inflation expectations remained near historic lows.
“Consumers perceive an overall stabilization of current prices and a marked decrease in expectation for future inflation,” Isae said in the report.
Italy’s inflation rate fell to minus 0.1 percent in July. It will be 0.8 percent in 2009 and 1.5 percent in 2010, the country’s central bank forecast on July 15.
Isae conducted its confidence survey between Aug. 3 and Aug. 21.
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