Sent one ominous marking 4500 points the mall alre

( rpm)We look at the cattle treatise! It was fairly Niua!

Market ominously signal 4500 Coast to Coast?

2007-05-28 17:38 Yu Wei Shi-based investment



after the Spring Festival all the way to see why the more bold to do more of me, suddenly cautious, see empty?

is not because recently many foreign traditions, in particular, Greenspan, Li Ka-shing important fiscal figures and other universal stock markets in China to see the empty words thrown? The response is no. I adore administration, but not blindly. Read the tape beneath 10 years of experience and the most recent market signals, I got a huge improvement this week, there is the likelihood of the broader market. Of course the same, you beholders can adore my attitude, but do not follow blindly.

Now I face from a policy, funding, the marketability, psychological, technical side, it said this week bearish reasons.

1, the plan side: This year, the policy for the bearish stock market than the previous one and a half years to be much more in terms of time, but these bearish policy is effectively to control the macro-economic class . Interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio in a short time, intensive release, mainly to adjust the excess liquidity, slightly faster CPI, the overheated investment and redundant lending growth. The impact on the stock market is a cumulative process, and when the power play? Hard to say, does not change the pattern of the bull market,Christian Louboutin Mary Janes, but as time goes on, the gradual trend of short-term impact. In increase, starting from the Hangxiao Steel,Christian Louboutin D'Orsays, the treatment supervision of the market is gradually strengthening, for insider trading, unlawful operations, amplified a catena of rules and regulations, though the system is not very sound, the intensity of supervision is not great, but at least management expressed a resolve to excessive speculation in the market of a advising. Of course, we should watch that side of the market care management to improve the QFII quota to distend the fluctuation range of the RMB interchange rate, stock index futures forthcoming, and gradually cultivate the monitoring machinery is to work to the bull market is more healthy and solid. But there is no direction to adjust the short squeeze up, I do not muse that management is compliant to see. Recent issue of investor hazard management pedagogy, the stock caveat emptor is the maximum wording of the voice of their averaging.

2, funds face: Indeed, in the past six months, the professionals will not fund whichever concerns to the surface, mammoth exotic exchange reserves, increasing the every month trade additional, a result of rapid economic development sneaked into hot money, the fund's excess issue, the stock market to make money effect and the increasing number of investors to open an list, and both are reasons for capital inflow into the stock market, the stock market and real estate market has become the best vent excess liquidity point, pushing up asset prices continue to become a material of course. However, shows that the Government's foreign trade additional in stage management, the Fund's delivery rate is gradually slowing. These also are secondary, not a pair of short-term straight impact on the stock market. Recently with some friends in the banking sector, after that, the liquidity of banks now have less extra than a year in a row to heave the deposit reserve ratio, the bank's rank was firm, numerous banks have loans for the first four months of the year target of 70%, less goodwill to lend out. Again is the retail inflows, we can not anticipate the number to open one account can continue to disc high, the same can not be expected that small investors will be the heart of Qi, after decreasing in the money efficacy, this part of the chief inflows will cut corners the speed.

course, the above two reasons I do not empty the direct reason of the broader market this week to near to the market, the market side, psychological, technical face of the greater inspire of the broader market this week, that is, the market element is itself vacant this week, I see an essential reason for the broader market.

3, the market side: I am concerned approximately some of the recent market signals gave me a sense of unknown. B shares rises and falls are thought 1 of the B shares in 2001 ushered in behind the spike is A-share market correction of 5 years, of course, a grain of truth the new market than in 2001, I also trust namely the conversion will not appear CBBC, but at the end of the day, very a lot in the short-term market impact. The soaring pedestal closure can be thought one, according to quondam experience, letters signify the base of the soaring broader market generally peaked in the short term, of course, history can not reiterate a uncomplicated, but surprisingly alike. Even if this was a mini taken for granted for two reasons, see at the market to do more kinetic vigor, 100 shares is immediately a high steel dome, unless there is 10 obtain 10, or almost always of the stocks stop at 100, I believe namely afterward this round of the century ox market of epic proportions, naturally at the birth of a digit of long-term stock price of more than 100 stocks, but not immediately, and immediately the hundred is the most tough high-priced shares in a threshold, since all of a sudden go through, modify, Zaigong out is the best choice; crown, lower it? Now the emulating is considered a crown, lower 15 yuan has basically been excluded stock below 8 yuan, China's quick economy evolution can not be re-listed companies are all value of 10 yuan more than the cap, lower the presumption has come to a craze state, in the high-priced stocks is not the case for beyond open space, I can not imagine that they can last long. Main varieties of brokerage, real possession, is still popular in recent though, but the intensity of imagination has been far less, if the normal adjustment of these category, the broader market a tiny Jiabu Zhu. Although banks did not mushroom, but they are now clearly transform a contrarian arrow, their ascend and could guide to other stocks plunged. As a outcome, the market's recent momentum can not do more to mainly create, a sign of trouble, will change the pattern of long and short.

4, psychological: It seems that now the market on the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,500 points have reached a consensus, whether it is looking more bearish on the stock to approach a general believe that 4500 is not difficult, but unavoidable. Both professional and non-professionals to use a simple formula: 2250 * 2 = 4500, or 750,1500,2250,3000 is important to pass on the card, so 4500 became a matter of course a membership of this sequence. From a psychological inquiry, a more simple fact,Christian Louboutin, when all the people kas long as4500 is a high point, it is certainly not the high point, or not, it certainly going to make a lot of people popping in passing. So I think 4500 though in close vicinity, it is possible that far.

5, technical: This is the most Xuan Hu's side, and periodically technical facet is the most bad, but I still have to differentiate you study. Golden theory: first look at a formula: 2245 + (2245-998) * 1.618 = 4262, which is the 4250-4300 place is 2245 after crashing the unattached most important morsel golden. Wave theory: the number of waves is difficult, but sometimes you can calculate as a reference, I counted down on the card is currently running 1-5-3-5 or 1-5-5, in the case 1-5-3-5 currently facing 1-5-4 wave adjustment of at least 300-500 points, the time is 1-3 weeks, if the 1-5-5, you face a big adjustment 2 800 points or more waves, more than 3 months, the longest up to 9 months. MACD: The index and the altitude away from there Sicha, the sometime two there were early June 2006, down 8%, adjusted time of 2 weeks; the end of January 2007, down 11%, adjusted time of 2 weeks, this Sicha Add altitude departure from the Council and outside?

operation strategy: Now how to do,Christian Louboutin Slingbacks, whether the tape actually for I had expected the trend, everyone how to do? Three means for your reference:
1, Shigekura value stocks, the less time to read the tape, do not ambition to do in the short-term, and the excellent state of idea of people, you can enjoy sharing bull feast, ignoring the broader market in the short-term adjustment, but This type of operation you must not lightly swing.
2, Shigekura short-term action, because each daytime in the stock mart foam, there namely plenty of period for human to do short-term, and eventually the most outrageous crazy, yet we must honor,Christian Louboutin Shoes, the rule of short-term action, kick the conquering buffet, but with not triumphing run, a mighty kind of peppery pursuit of the market, strictly merely the profit stop, the massive amount of asset alternatively short-term aptitude of folk apt not be so strong play, and then recommends short-term stock held for no extra than 3 days,Christian Louboutin Flats, everyday restrict of tickets RBI exception.
3, the proportion of strict control positions, large funds of funds and the efficiency requirements of the human intended to positions close to the 3 into the retinue, and the key configuration banks.
4, plus one, fully believe me, ahead Wednesday, the stock empty!