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73189 2009 年 08 月 04 日 11:38 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
to the end of July 2009, A shares, Hong Kong stocks, international oil and London copper nearly doubled during the year, the Dow rose nearly 5 months 50% of the maximum, stabilized at 9000 points. Launched in early 2009 the international financial markets, the big move a long time, gains the fierce, rare, almost beyond everyone's expectations. However, a sudden death round of market one day and cause of death in the strange, perhaps more will be beyond expectations.
can not predict the stock market
2009 the international financial market, the big move early crush many people in the industry to see empty glasses. In early 3000, as rising domestic institutions unanimously predicted limit has been exceeded 10%. The Dow is not only no
Today, however, the forecast for the current round of market is still different opinions and incomprehensible.
look at the technical school, a large B wave rally and a new bull market can be described as daggers drawn battle, both supported by the relevant technical indicators, but no one can convince. Technology to send the embarrassment is that a large B wave rally may have a large A wave decline 0.382,0.5,0.682 rebound and other golden bits, and even starting to break down a large A wave of new high point, not only the market can not be the end of the space-time accurate prediction, but a large increase in B waves bounce wave bull market strategy with a completely different, the former should leave to avoid large rallies devastating wave C, which is waiting for the bull market should not move the main shareholders good returns upward move;
the fundamentals camp embarrassment, is a strong economic recovery is expected, inflation is expected to form a turning point in international financial markets, and economic turning point, inflection point inflation data has not yet appeared in sharp contradiction or not recognized, can not be confirmed as the new economic turning point a basis for the bull market started.
policy to send the same awkward, because they can only loose monetary policy has repeatedly emphasized the same countries, the excess liquidity to remain unchanged, the international financial market conditions to remain unchanged, but the same can not predict when future easing of monetary policy changes, because as loose monetary policy to adjust the economic recovery based on the same inflection point when there can not be accurately predicted.
biggest problem is that school can not explain the fundamentals of economic recovery in the international financial markets continued to rise sharply before the contrarian, contrarian in the economic recovery continue to adjust after the sharp correction in embarrassment. Because of economic recovery, loose monetary policy led to excessive release of excess liquidity, market liquidity surplus in the valuation criteria based on the sharp rise once the economy recovers, loose monetary policy tightening, the excess liquidity disappears, the market based on the excess liquidity turn on the valuation standards dropped significantly. School can not explain the policy of international financial markets are likely to loose monetary policy in the context of the ongoing adjustment, a substantial adjustment, for example, in October 2008 collapse of the international financial markets, the Dow dropping as early March 2009 6469 points.
more intriguing is that many practitioners than a decade, the industry experienced senior market is very confused on this round, including a representative of the argument, precisely because so far the global financial crisis, to understand the mechanism does not explain, therefore, regardless of the economic recovery, inflation expectations, loose monetary policy adjustment of expectations, the expected trend of the international financial markets all ... ... the future with great uncertainty and unpredictable.
However, it is all in the future with great uncertainty in the background, the market actually formed three consensus that China will resolutely implement the loose monetary policy; eight of China's economic recovery and security is no problem; the weak dollar and global Inflation is inevitable. Thus, A large share of the market, whether bull or a B wave rally will continue for a long time, a national stock market frenzy is taking shape, the China Securities Registration Company on July 21 released statistics show that as of July 13-17 Nisshin increase the number of accounts rose to 484,799 shares, the highest since January 2008 since the third trading week high of nearly 18 months. New fund accounts, increased to 91,132, a new self-March 2008 the first trading week since the record high.
sum up, whether based on historical experience in the financial markets, or based on the traditional technical analysis, fundamental analysis, policy analysis can not explain and predict surface round market.
this new work the author tries to Lee disk analysis, analysis of international financial markets in 2009 in real terms the bullish market. In my opinion, this market is global excess liquidity and global liquidity dried up in 2001-2008 under the auspices of the international financial market continues to rise with 7 years of crazy crazy fall for 1 year condensed version of the first half.
rare black swan

I believe that the fundamentals of the current round of market-led CBBC neither, nor is it a technical adjustment of the bull market led, bear market rally, but liquidity-driven market. Fundamental or technical-led market led the White Swan, excess liquidity-driven market is the black swan, black swan as not to White Swan.
or technical lead for the fundamentals leading market, as long as the fundamentals (macroeconomic performance of listed companies) is not the turning point, CBBC trend is not reversed; As for the adjustment of the bull market bear market rally, band who can do out of time to master the technical indicators. The excess liquidity-driven market. May drive the dollar yen carry mad Jiancang start at any time, the U.S. dollar yen carry panic plate open end at any time, gave birth to great risk.
view of the current round started in 1664 points the stock market is liquidity driven market black swans, rather than the technical fundamentals of market-oriented White Swan, therefore, the end of 1664 only one key indicator of market liquidity, you can set basic face technical expense. 1664 departure from the market there and the technical indicators, as well as with the fundamental departure from the fundamentals of the economic recovery is expected, inflation is expected to respond to extreme exaggeration, just to prove that it has nothing to do with the fundamentals of black swans technical market. If the market when the White Swan Black Swan market operations, the inevitable price to pay for Black Swan.
liquidity indicators
activities by liquidity flow into domestic and global liquidity. 1664 Quotes excess domestic liquidity dominated the first half of 2009, new loans reached unprecedented Mainland 7 trillion, the equivalent of twice the new loans a year in previous years. Experts estimate that 1.4 trillion in new loans into the A shares, once the mass evacuation of these new loans will be an important signal of the end of 1664 prices.
is worth noting that the second quarter of 2009 with a net outflow of foreign hot money to net inflow from the start into the A shares. According to Zhang Ming of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, short-term international capital flows 3 months totaled 87.9 billion U.S. dollars. Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences Li Youhuan foreign hot money, the project leader, said foreign hot money since September 2008 from a net outflow in May 2009 to net inflows of attention A shares. Foreign hot money into the market in 2500, not the sedan chair for the mainland capital, and foreign hot money in 2007 should lift the heavyweights half of 6124 rose 20% points, the cover exactly the same as Hong Kong stocks withdrawal of hot money.
positive change negative Black Swan Black Swan is a precursor to the amount of days, the negative Black Swan Black Swan positive harbinger of change is in volume. 1664 Black Swan has appeared daily turnover in Shanghai July 20 was another day of the amount of 236.5 billion, close to Shanghai history, the amount of days (May 30, 2007 on turnover of 275.5 billion), the amount of days high price, when they no longer create new heavens and the amount of over 236.5 billion, price not far off. In addition, in October 2007 A shares and the Dow since the HSI peaked simultaneously, more than see the bottom step, therefore, peaked in overseas markets will have a major impact A shares peaked (this view the end of 2007 and early 2008 the author In the
here first concern is the impact of Hong Kong stocks peaked in August. 20,000 points for the Hong Kong stock is not only an important psychological barrier, but also a history of large decreases in the top 0.5 31958-10676 technical resistance, once broken 20,000, a large number of short CBBC will be laid to the dead, July 30 is July constant SOE index finger and the settlement of stock index futures day long on the settlement date will be forced to completely surrender short. This scene with the October 30, 2007 Hong Kong stocks top record 31,958 points, there is great history of great similarities. At that time three months rose 50% see only a dozen major historical trading day after the top, Hong Kong stocks to plunge 20%. Now, five months rose nearly doubled (to 10% margin while the stock index futures contracts, the largest increase up to 10 times), the August Hang Seng Index will not repeat itself turned guns kill bear to kill bulls finished this scene? Hong Kong shares sharply once the adjustment, A shares will be adjusted into the middle.
is worth noting that the dollar index and the yen are now just a dual exchange rate appreciation of the roots of hot money started baton arbitrage major international financial markets adjusted.
arbitrage-led
both super bull market in the first half of 2001-2008, a major adjustment in the second half of 2008, or a big rebound in the first half of 2009, both in May the biggest commodity record monthly rise more than 30 years, five months of oil doubled,ed hardy shop, are inseparable from the mysterious Hand - Dollar Yen arbitrage. Yen carry arbitrage model disk is: can 1: 30 high-leverage, unlimited access to zero-cost currency loans (such as zero-interest rate loans in Japanese yen), after selling in the foreign exchange market to buy high yielding currencies (eg AUD) risk-free interest rate arbitrage. U.S. arbitrage arbitrage model is: You can get negative cost money loan (such as long-term depreciation of the dollar loans), after the foreign exchange market to sell dollars to buy a strong currency (such as RMB), the exchange differences for low-risk arbitrage, high interest rates can also currency, hard currency-related assets, the high-risk arbitrage. Interest rates, exchange rates, capital gains is the manipulation of the three killer arbitrage. But the exchange rate, the impact of capital gains than interest rates. Therefore, central banks interest rate policy does not mean that the international financial market inflection point inflection point inflection point determined by the main international financial markets, the dollar index and the yen exchange rate inflection point, and the interaction between the two formed an instant zoom effect scissors.
been able to reap huge arbitrage profits, because as long as the yen as the dollar currency exchange rate arbitrage (interest rates) is stable or declining, or high-yielding currencies strong currency exchange rates (interest rates) continued to rise, or high-yielding currencies strong currency-related asset prices continue to rise, led to arbitrage were poor, and arbitrage spreads the scissors to maximize space, it will lead to dollar, the yen carry tray crazy to sell dollars, Japanese yen to buy all the arbitrage assets. 2001, Krugman received the Bank of Japan suggested that the quantitative easing policy, July 2001 -2008 yen in March most of the time and down 10 yen at 110 yen in narrow ranges, and accumulated to borrow at 7 years yuan to buy all the yen carry plate; and July 2001 -2008 U.S. dollar index on March 121-70,40% decrease in the seven major adjustment had to borrow U.S. dollars to buy all the dollars arbitrage, resulting in November 2001 -2008 CRB index of 181-614 in July and commodity bull market in 2002 - 2007 bull market in global stock markets.
great risk arbitrage is that the U.S. dollar as the yen carry currency exchange rates or interest rates rise significantly, the international financial markets, high interest rates currency exchange rates or interest rates drop, the underlying asset prices continue to drop,ed hardy outlet, respectively, lead to arbitrage differences (Lee deviation) space,cheap ed hardy, arbitrage minimize the scissors, causing panic arbitrage positions. October 2008 collapse of the international financial market is arbitrage positions from panic.
2009 big move in international financial markets the dollar yen carry the same disk crazy Jiancang classic. In the central banks printing money to save the economy, the global context of excess liquidity, in January 2009 -6 month USDJPY 87-101 continued appreciation of the nearly 20% since March 2009 and the U.S. dollar index from 89 to 78 to 15% decline, and the early start of the international financial market is large market interaction, the formation of scissors benefits, the birth of the large dollar, the yen carry plate, the dollar, the yen carry arbitrage disk is the first half of 2009 Big rebound in global stock markets and commodities rally real power. Similarly, a large international financial markets in 2009 prices, these will be in U.S. dollar yen carry panic plate end of this round of open market.
yen dollar dollar index arbitrage and the yen is at a critical variable disk zone, the dollar index 40-day moving average the following short and medium term moving average convergence in the 78-79 U.S. dollar against the yen of 60-day moving average the following short and medium term moving average convergence at 94-95, facing a breakthrough in the direction of choice in August. Once the dollar as a year ago, the yen rebounded sharply in the direction of both the appreciation of the dollar yen carry panic plate positions, will lead to international financial markets are facing a major adjustment.
often striking similarities between the history, and not simply repeat. Two years later, China's national stock market into a frenzy once again.
A stock build-up number
For when sounded, how sounded, must first understand how the A shares Chong Fenghao sounded.
the stock market peaked in time and space, the amount of the three indexes can be the inevitable result of a harmonious resonance, from the time to read 7-August is the top of the market an important time window; the years 3215-3312 from the space left the upward gap,ed hardy bikini, with a strong resistance, the same time, this position is A share market since 1664 or 1 times the key indicators; can see from the amount of the last two weeks of persistent largest since June 2007 and the week of daily turnover turnover, these are short-term the market has peaked at least a necessary condition for turning point. The heavyweights of Chinese architecture,ed hardy online, Everbright Securities IPO's into full swing, with the recent international financial market has been out of the ongoing madness has hijacked A shares rising tone does not transfer to which the crazy trend Diego high resonance, once the tight monetary policy,ed hardy sunglasses, a thorough investigation credit funds into the stock market introduction of the policy, or the dollar index and the yen continued to appreciate at the same time began to offer triggered a panic U.S. dollar yen carry positions, when the short-term market turning point is likely to evolve into medium-term turning point.


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40-year-old son disappeared mysteriously, from far away in rural Hubei Province in the enigmatic world of parents spent the 5 years. Although the trustee in the online posting missing children 4 months after the sudden appearance of his son, called the elderly only 3 minutes on the phone. But the old fears his son has not eliminated, but more intense.
strange Posts: 7 to find 45-year-old son late father

since February of this year, a special look for sub-post in the Netease, End of the World and other forums to be tens of thousands of people visit. Posted by narration from the reporter was informed that the missing children of the elderly is Hongan Cheng Town, Hubei Province, Village farmers Huke Xiang,true religion mens jeans, Since 2004, he lost contact with home, I called the school Trustee Personnel Office, said that the person missing, the school has been removed, or that he divorced ... ... Search 5 years to no avail.
reporter learned was removed,true religion skinny jeans, post who is the nephew of the elderly Humou Huke Xiang. Spring Festival this year, the Humou home that Hu Kexiang couple driven to distraction because of the disappearance of his son, cried and survived several Chinese New Year is coming, he decided to help the elderly through the network to find son, Feb. 12, which then spread to the post Online.
Yesterday, the reporter called the phone the elderly, Hu Yongzu mother Zhoucui E, said Hu Yongzu born in 1963, and later had been a soldier, went to work in Dalian and Dalian, marriage and children. Suddenly interrupted in 2004 all contact with their families. I wasted step, I urge the good people know the situation, tell us the news of Hu Yongzu. .
Zhoucui E memories, because home is too far away from Dalian, together with his son in Dalian have been very tight the day Pakistan, the son rarely home. before the daughter and grandson also ask them to call back, but they disappeared with my son.
divorce. Even Hu Yongzu comrades have expressed shock and wonder,levis jean, the school said it has been automatically leave

the Internet to see Hu Yongzu was missing,true religion online, many of his former comrades in arms have begun to help to find. May 29, Hu Yongzu a comrade in Qingdao to provide information that he was working in Dalian, a retired cadres, and asked friends to help find Dalian, but have yet to find his whereabouts.
according to the clues provided by users,true religion jeans, the reporter found on January 9 last year, a university in Dalian's a notice: The gay-speed file transfer to my school and other related procedures apply.
It is understood that in 2005 Hu Yongzu not had for a long time to come to work, the unit through a variety of ways not linked to him, and later notified him by letter to the school dismissed for the relevant procedures,true religion sale, but still no response. Eventually, the unit address of its registered in the unit served with instruments that still did not respond.
accident call: family still kept in the dark

posts after child, Hu Yongzu parents anxiously waiting for another 4 months. Until June 9, Zhoucui E received a phone she cried, this phone is Hu Yongzu calling, that he has peace. Old people crying for a pass, to remember complaining about why the mysterious disappearance of his son.
Zhoucui E said she was also concerned about the daughter and grandson, but the son just told she has yet to completely divorce, did not mention the other, nothing. Gengrang Zhoucui E concern is that the son she was only told his family in Dalian, but did not leave contact information.
Zhoucui E said, the phone, Hu Yongzu that now can not go home, to wait until the New Year lead again when his son back. However, these few words Gengrang she worried how his son is over the 5 years, and his family in the end how you?

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With people what the basic etiquette? ,belstaff blouson

1, someone to pour, do not dry looking, use the hand help to show courtesy


2, someone to speak to you, you should at least be able to take words, can not people say that the last sentence, you're not the next sentence, or blindly saying ah ah ah, yes yes yes.


3, when someone staring at you Do not look directly at each other, pretending not to notice. --- I will return to TV, and it is, he, she, smile!


4, bad mood, even the best skin care products and cosmetics are not remedied by the skin.


5, sleep well, people will speak incoherent, unresponsive, prominent black eye. --- sleep well have a good spirit, is very important.


6, another release of \


7, to be led lecture, do not bow their heads to look directly at the leadership, with a smile, accepted the criticism, the leadership of the fire will gradually subside, otherwise,belstaff jacken, the leadership will be fuel. --- workplace thick Black, learn about.


8, a woman I cannot ask for money to men palms facing up.


9, withdrew after dinner, said: \


10, gives the delivery of water must be hand delivered meals.


11, do not tilt the chair to sit


12, eat and Duanwan, do not pick on the plate


13, the last door, close the door to remember


14, give it away to go to say: \


15,belstaff online, washed his hands do not arbitrarily walk away, the water will knocking people who are rude


16, delivery tool for others to remember that one end of the handle

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17, do not throw stones


18,belstaff motorcycle jackets, listening to others when the eyes do not waver. This appeared to be very rude.


19, pour tea, after someone else, do not spout against the others


20, Stand up, take a ride phase.


21, encountered the kind of inside out can open doors, pull and not push --- I am in the company often are pushed to learn, and I repent!


22, said to have to do it. Can not do, do not promise.


23, not petty advantages not greedy for money, amount of money but also time spent,belstaff leather, but money is never a panacea.


24, the house was when the light hand to close out


25, the world does not believe in tears .... grab focus.


26, instead of spending an empty mind to keep a man, let a man take an empty mind to retain their


27, the people are poor go rather short


28, hold rice or served tea to others, if in the interval of the people, not through the delivery from the front of others, but from others around the back of delivery


29, they have a skill is really capable


30, learn to learn to listen to gentle


31, go to another home, people do not sit on the bed


32, clink with others in the wine on the table, their hand must be lower than the other, especially the elders or leading the other party is


33, clear umbrella, full with dry food --- rainy day is always good.


34, if you ask someone else if others do not answer you, do not die with the nerve to keep asking.


35, try not to eat when the sound


36, time to pick something to wear shoes or squatted, do not we bend over you gotta girl Oh ---


37, when others criticize you, even if he is wrong, do not split first identified, so we all calmed down and then explain


38, to do things to stop, whether it is binge eating favorite food or losing his temper


39, to a friend's house after dinner, take the initiative to help clean up the table ----- wash owner has been very hard to cook, can not also allow the owner to clean up afterwards


40, life will meet a wide range of people, you can not in tune with each person, but one thing is universally applicable: How do you treat others, how others will treat you


41, had great hospitality, housekeeping had small


42, the fist back to strike back to a more powerful


43, who live in the world, we must first learn a \


44, at any time to anyone Do not tell each other your secrets


45, save the money does not depend on, and will spend will earn


46, life-long learning, not just learn book knowledge, but also to learn how to dealing with people, society more complex than you think


47, do not talk with my colleagues in the non-supervisors or other colleagues, your mood is likely to be someone else's words against your evidence


48, to do things, do a good job is your part, is that you do not dereliction of duty


49, only the wrong buy, nothing wrong with selling. Do not just a petty advantages.


50, sometimes alone is normal, do not be afraid, it has to adjust


51, a real friend, but wonder if you have good fortune encountered. With or without experience, do not deny it. Do not calculated to others, especially not calculating your favorite people. Of your favorite people, do not use means to get


52, the most courageous thing is to recognize the truth of life after the still love life. Do not be afraid to deceive, but to know there is cheating the world


53, to borrow money when the heart must be a bottom, is to think of the money from him. So take forever to get the money he can afford to lose range. Less than the number of affordable, even if not come back, but also as early as prepared mind. They can not afford to lose the number, not by


54, best friends, unless he could eat poor food, and it would be best not to have economic relations. Many valuable friendships are ruined on the money. --- Borrowed money from friends, it is shame. Is this friendship that BYE BYE precursor.


55, meaning the material can be a gentleman, but not pay attention to things


56, while away from home may be able to tolerate,belstaff uk, take a step backward


57, time to wipe the table to wipe their own direction


58, call the phone the first thing it must be fed, HI; hang when waiting for someone else to hang --- hey, I have always been so.


59, a hundred times not to be unfaithful


60, do not spit throwing things, and if there is no trash to throw trash carry home


61, more reading to our mind, you will see a wider world


62, but for you to adapt to society, not society to adapt to your


63, do not let others know their true thoughts, to laugh in front of people laugh, cry tears of a man hiding


64, do not walk hand in his pockets --- I made a mistake, change.


65, to do simple things complicated and complicated things simple and do


66, the opportunity only to people who are prepared to leave, the sky will not fall out


67, no matter under what conditions, carefully brush your teeth, especially at night


68, morning, eat some breakfast, no breakfast, a cup of water is also necessary to


69, the less people right and wrong, to their management firm


70, to be responsible for their actions, not blaming Heaven by the people, think before doing should not be out of trouble themselves to learn


71, in order to dignitaries in front of people, we must first suffer


after people related issues:
contacts should pay attention to the basic etiquette in interpersonal communication
basic etiquette which
interpersonal need to pay attention to what etiquette?
in social interaction should pay attention to what etiquette? What are the basic etiquette
to pay attention?

Reprinted from : The basic etiquette with people What? Search Search ask

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Sun Yunxiang interview, a bit shy. Qiu Xiaofeng She

(Reporter intern Wuling Chuan Yuan Xu Hunan Normal University campus reporter Xu Tingting) 1.65 meters in height,true religion straight, an ordinary black-rimmed glasses,cheap true religion online, the simple white T-shirts, Hunan Normal University new report of the crowd, he seemed not at all humble. This habit of narrowing his eyes, his face vigorously a Yesterday morning, the boy Sun Yunxiang Yongzhou College of Life Sciences in Hunan Normal University,true religions, reported new students everywhere, students at the school signed a solemn undertaking, formally opened the prelude of his college life.
Sun Yunxiang: I am not a child prodigy

Hunan Normal University students yesterday was the first day of registration. The 13-year-old students appeared to be the focus of everyone. Soon,cheap true religion, he was a number of media reporters,
for the first time the face of so many shots, Sun Yunxiang clearly very suited, a shy, he has unconsciously clenched fist, even in an interview hesitatingly. He told reporters that the University gave him a fresh feeling that this is high school campuses can not match. But one thing he was a bit nerve-racking but the rain-delayed: The family of teachers. From 5-year-old started school, he spent 3 years just finished primary school. At age 11, Sun Yunxiang admitted with distinction in the province of a model high Yongzhou. College entrance examination this year, he more than one score 18 points, a score out of 585 were admitted science Hunan Normal University.
chosen to head with a shy face.
only mention of his favorite detective reasoning and fantasy novels, he began ineloquent topic. Open his heavy suitcase, the first thing that catches your eyes is the two He said he was at home this summer is to see things done the most novels, especially the detective novel, but unfortunately their logical reasoning ability is not strong, and each time only those who yearn for the novel repeatedly detected inside the big mystery detectives. Scud said, and all are settled, he most wanted to do the first thing that got into the school library, a book experience the fun of sea travel.
father: 13-year-old son, so I'm very relieved

Although Sun Yunxiang's father accompanied him to the school, but from newborn up to receive uniforms, meal card, to buy bedroom bedding, a series of small Scud report all their work done. His father looked at his son's every move silently, his face covered with a happy smile. For such a Despite slightly in reading Sun Yunxiang Sentimental and a shy smile but still new to report independently of the atmosphere moves, it seems that all the worries are unnecessary. Sun Yunxiang's father, said: learn cooking cleaning, shopping pick, in order to improve daily living. However, he did not panic, but calmly explain to the uniform payment of teachers to their own circumstances, successfully received their uniforms. After receiving uniforms holding, within the Scud was a bit excited. He admits that he is just an ordinary boy, normally like to play CS, Age of Empires games such as entertainment. So for the upcoming military training,levis jeans sale, Scud especially look forward to. He smiled and said: very popular, many parents fear that children can not take care of themselves,true religion shop, chose to give up work around the tenants in their children's schools, I believe my son, he was able to adapt to the environment here! Li Yan to exceed year-old girl in Hunan Science Forms Pick a smooth line is a score of 16, the school admitted to a Shibuya shy, very calm and relaxed and more were in Sun Yunxiang Vision Li Yan, the two age-matched and bedroom, good relations with the people, must be active in a number of universities, for student leaders to do, exercise their abilities. military training, killing games, biological specimens ... ... and then a look of longing within the Sun Yunxiang listened attentively in the next.

Sun told reporters in the side of my father last year, he saw from the media on Li Yan The report, therefore, to his son's success as the Li Yan Middle School effort, and apply the same professional and Li Yan. in front of the camera at them, Li took Sun Yunxiang put a gesture. two small partners through this way to tell everyone: a little boy, as wonderful to enjoy college life!