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56715 2007 年 10 月 28 日 22:04 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
Economy problems arising from structural imbalance is not monetary policy can not solve, how much liquidity you receive, it can create much, because the other end of the valve controlling party not in China.
worthy of attention is now almost all foreign investment banks out of the Chinese macro-sector \to become the world's busiest central banks. 10 months, 8 raising the reserve ratio, raising interest rates 5 times, there are several hundred billion dollars directional instruments. This series of initiatives, the main objective of strengthening the banking system liquidity management, curb the excessive growth of monetary credit. Aimed at preventing financial risks, inflation trends and maintain steady economic growth.
obvious characteristics of imported inflation in China
However, we must first figure out that the Chinese inflation come from? The author believes that the essence of inflation or currency depreciation caused by too much money, the source is the U.S. dollar standard system under the junk, to the Chinese into a lot of liquidity, leading to dilution of wealth in China, making China increasingly heavy pressure on domestic inflation. In other words, China's current prices of imported inflation is rising significantly.
since 2001 after the U.S. new economy bubble burst, the United States continues to shift the costs of economic adjustment, a series of interest rate cuts Greenspan, pouring a large amount of liquidity into the world economy over the past five years, global official reserves increased by 1.5 times to reach 5 trillion U.S. dollars. No gold behind the U.S. support behind the United States government bonds did not support domestic savings. Therefore, this is only supported by the notes rather than gold credit creation will inevitably lead to a global scale often of economic overheating and asset price inflation as the characteristics of the credit bubble. When the increase of 3 trillion dollars to the U.S. currency into the banking system surplus countries,
bose headphones, these countries began a process of manufacturing foam.
commercial banks began frantically to expand credit, unprecedented economic prosperity, the stock market and real estate market prices and rapidly rising corporate profits. Since each industry can receive low-interest loans, which are built excess production capacity. When the extraordinary investment and economic growth accelerated, the asset price bubble will inevitably appear.
from the end of 2001 in mid-September of this year, reflecting the core of the international market, the CRB commodity price volatility of raw materials index has risen by 133%. 5 years of gold from 260 U.S. dollars / ounce increased to $ 748 / ounce, crude oil from 20 dollars / barrel rose to 80 U.S. dollars / barrel. According to Bush's 2005 \Less than two years, the global corn price has risen 86% year on year, palm oil prices rose 46%. To higher education, medical and other services, purchasing power, purchasing power this year, probably only a fraction of the equivalent of five years ago. House prices, not to say.
key to see whether the overall inflation is expected to
Some people think that the price increase was mainly driven by short-term rise in food prices, China's core inflation rate is not high, the future is difficult to form a comprehensive inflation.
In my opinion, the core inflation rate to consumer demand for a not-led economy is meaningless, that the Americans invented indicators to their own use. Will form the next round of inflation, I think the key to look at expectations. One thing is certain, it is full of money in the economy is too much (or stresses awash with liquidity), no way, only the elasticity of supply for some of the assets of a small hedge. You can see that housing prices skyrocketing this year, the share price soaring asset prices continued to surge to people with a strong currency devaluation expectations.
Once the currency depreciation is expected to strengthen and spread the pressure on labor costs, land price pressure could easily drive the overall increase in finished goods prices.
factor price of our resources are now market-oriented reforms have not fully expanded, our coal, electricity, oil and transportation prices are still under control, also significantly lower than the international level, China's economy can grow while maintaining high-speed low inflation, the public's confidence in the government-controlled prices is an important factor. But, after all, China has entered a critical period of structural reform, unless the elements of future resources to advance the pace of reform slow down, but that structural imbalance is likely to exacerbate, then, is not just a problem of inflation.
crunch work?
the root of China's flood of liquidity from the two aspects should actually look. On the one hand the U.S. dollar-based international monetary system, the dollar can spam, because the right has money, so the world can be transferred to the remaining costs of economic adjustment; the other hand, the world must have a corresponding depreciation of the dollar economy can absorb the impact of Otherwise, this game will be the way to an abrupt end the financial crisis. China's economy will undoubtedly act as a transition to this role, due to the factor allocation and pricing of the high degree of control, the resulting highly distorted factor markets, reducing production costs throughout the economy, high return on investment than-expected result in global capital to China influx.
so,
Beats Headphones, our industry has been significantly improved profits,
Monster Beats Headphones, business investment and production incentives were increased significantly, the international competitiveness of many products will be temporarily enhanced. Problem is the imbalance between investment and consumption more and more serious, because the government-led investment-driven model elements necessarily biased in favor of capital allocation, biased in favor of business, biased in favor of the government, we now have a lot of money enterprises (especially the monopoly sector organizations), government there are a lot of money (especially local government resources, the majority of the ultimate controlling factor), but the people have no money, leading to excessive investment in the economy which (especially the government-led direct and indirect investment), export excessive trade surplus is too high and not enough consumption, the currency appreciation pressure, awash with liquidity and so on. A structural imbalance of China's economy has greatly increased the risk of long-term.
Clearly, the dilemma facing China today is the economy's deep structural contradictions in the comprehensive reflection of the current rise in prices,
monster beats, the credit investment expansion, domestic demand,
Monster Headphones, excess liquidity, the trade surplus surges, etc., but cause and effect of these contradictions an organic whole, rather than an independent existence. Policy-making can not be separated and single out the one set of local, must grasp the dynamic between internal and external imbalances are intertwined into each other.
economic problems arising from structural imbalance is not a monetary policy that can be solved, how much liquidity you receive, it can create much, because the other end of the valve controlling party is not in China, despite the central bank to do all the hedge, with not last long, liquidity will generally like the tide coming.
in the context of economic globalization today, who is the more active, it means that who bears the costs of adjustment more, which in fact become a national interest in the game. China's excess liquidity from the plight of the freed, the core is the need to change in the expected return on investment in China's super-status, in order to fundamentally reverse the flow of international capital to improve China's international balance of payments. Therefore, the resource factor prices become market-oriented reforms to improve the imbalance of economic structure, the most important, factor market prices only when the scale of investment and economic growth as \established.
the same time, structural changes carried out in China, such as resource factor prices,
monster pro headphones, income distribution system is also bound to change the world economic structure, so that toward the line with the direction of China's national interests. China elements of resources and manufactured goods prices which may lead to deterioration of the U.S. trade deficit, forcing the Fed to reverse the inevitable interest rate adjustments, the global demand and China's external liquidity will naturally reduce demand for Chinese exports will weaken, imbalance of international payments can be improved, the currency appreciation pressure will be reduced, help to change the situation in China is awash with liquidity, asset bubbles may also be a soft landing.
step up the price reform of resource products
from an economic sense, in market economies, inflation and the appreciation of the relationship between natural alternatives exist: Once the resource factor prices, delivered to the finished goods prices, to offset the upward pressure on the exchange rate, that is, price and exchange rate but the two points opposite each other constraints, and resources is the fundamental factor prices, China's resources, the distortion of factor prices inflated exchange rate appreciation pressures. In China, hoping to improve the international balance of exchange rate itself is an artificial price in the market mechanism of resource elements before the formation of the RMB exchange rate is difficult to find the equilibrium point.
I thought, stable exchange rate, speed up the prices of resource products and elements of the formation mechanism reform, the cost of goods reflect their actual costs after the gradual, and then speed up the RMB exchange rate market volatility. By then, the actual cost of the products moderate increase in the actual space is limited appreciation of the renminbi. And the continued appreciation of the policy is not expected amount of hot money entering the country will be smaller, the corresponding upward pressure is also small, appreciation will be more scientific and reasonable. This adjustment is totally different from the so-called mechanical appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, because the profits of resource prices is not a factor in foreign hands, mainly Chinese nationals to benefit, and ultimately the same Forced us to achieve an enterprise of the effect of upgrading the industrial structure, and also conducive to start domestic consumption.
worthy of attention is now almost all foreign investment banks on the Chinese macro-sectors out of the \
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