economist Andy Xie data because
I now officially inform you namely the property market has peaked, then will gradually ebb in the bear market will last 5 years, the city's average house prices may fall more than half went to dine crab season.
boiled crabs, crabs in chilly water 1st object you put the pot, they will think back to the lake, oblivious to the peril. Then,
GHD Pink Limited Edition, beneath the ponderous lid cover, and launched. At this time, you can listen them scratching sound of the kettle wall, began to light, and then struggling, and then light, then died down afterward the. A few minutes later, you open the lid, has transform a golden crab. At this time, you can with vinegar ginger, enjoy savory.
now, China's real estate people are like crabs in a pot of cold water. They feel nice,
GHD Benefit Styler, it will stretch my legs from time to time. Do not see anyone danger. As everybody knows, they have been covered with lid, the emulating points ashore the fire. Soon to be cooked, but at present discovered.
April of this year, I told readers of the property market bubble approximately to burst, it will inform you. Now, the property market has peaked. Time in the rest of the year, it will gradually decline. By 2012, the RMB appreciation is expected to be reversed, capital will flow, when the property market will expedite the decline.
China has entered the real estate bear market will last five years. Large cities, the average price is promising to fall more than half. Land prices will drop more. The largest and maximum outrageous bubble Zhejiang Province, prices could fall 80% or even more.
wages and rent
Why prices will fall so many? When the bubble deflated, when wages and prices have to fall to the class of investment income can patronize. In China's real estate market, immediately rental rate of return fewer than 3%, it have to return more than 5%, when the element price per square measure should not exceed two months, the mean wage.
the bubble time, the precision of declarations is one art market by the altitude. Follow the trend of investment in people weakness bubble booster, the total period to get up up to the final. Low tide is normally the bubble burst triggered by capital. Sometimes, excess supply will be more than speculative demand, enough to frighten off speculators. Most of the bubble is suddenly broken. But there is a gradual leakage of individual bubbles.
1997, the restriction of diplomatic asset shoving up interest rates, leading Hong Kong property market bubble burst, immediately, digestion of all funds of this ############. The Internet bubble burst in 2000,
GHD Rare Gift Set, because important shareholders of listed companies who have restricted sales of stock in the hands of large-scale sell-off just after that, woke up speculators. The U.S. housing bubble burst in 2007, because the sub-prime deserving, that is not on the speculators money.
increasingly frustrated
discourage real estate bubble can last for many years. 90 20th century, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average break, the Japanese property bubble has expanded for two years. And it is not disappeared at once, but in the subsequent two decades, to about 8% per year decline. Taiwan under Japanese affect, house prices are also deduct from, until the resumption of China's frenzied real estate market speculators.
1998, China's real possession bubble has burst. Three years, the Shanghai housing costs fell along two thirds. Guangdong and Hainan residential flats everywhere. More recently speaking, housing prices in Shanghai from May 2005 to the end of 2006 fell along 1 third. Many advertisement real estate and even dripped by half.
now the bubble began in 2007, by the loose financial policy and the appreciation of the renminbi expected birth, I thought, it also shattered in an instant. However, recent developments changed my point of view. The bursting of the bubble may not be momentary, but will gradually be deterred. Before, I thought the Government may relax the macro-control in the fourth quarter, leading to skyrocketing housing prices once the bubble in the second half of 2011 or 2012, a sudden burst.
Government is still not
two or three suites to relax lending restrictions. That most latent home buyers by the control, in truth, these home customers do not have enough cash, and primarily depend on loans to buy a house, therefore, not a higher level of house prices.
appending to the honor plan, liquidity namely likewise tightened. RMB interchange rate is like a After years of waiting, do not see the Although the United States once anew speak out Geithner yuan namely undervalued, yet the mall which has been numb. RMB NDF market does not anticipate significant appreciation of the RMB in the next year.
this hot money streaming into China a large shock. Deposits become increasingly competitive industry. Financial productions invested by banks is very much like deposits, but amuse rates than the central bank attempted higher interest provisions.
recession?
Now slowly Chinese real estate prices fell, and will more and more the pace in 2012, when China's economy will be frustrated. The next ten-year, exports, consumption and infrastructure will be 7% -8% growth rate. Compared with recent years, this growth is relatively slow,
GHD Salon Styler, but it is more advantageous to cultivate wages and family living standards and corporate profits.
Chinese human tin not use family equity loans to spend. More than 2000 million brains of families were empty rooms ambition be obtaining poorer,
GHD Midnight Collection, alternatively bankruptcy. Sales of elegance automobiles may also be dwindled. But the navel level with more buying power for they purchase from the speculators, where the spend will be reduced.
real estate bubble deflated in order to prevent an impact on other investments, the Government must immediately to recapitalize banks. Government has ample monetary resources and mastermind to do so. In the quondam decade,
GHD Pink Styler, China has a mighty property market and weak consumption. The next decade, the location may be just the inverse.
property speculators are like the pot of crabs in cold water, are paying to cook. However, taking vantage of the fire is now small, the water temperature is cheap, clever people still have time to flee.
I officially accuse you namely land cost foam to
Linear Mode
