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Reprinted from 4249251 at 10:40 on June 14, 2009 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
For the city that first joined the fighting and repeated sets of shareholders and the old investors, I recommend one of the most simple trading principles. 10-day average share price online, before they can consider buying the stock. Average price fell below the 10 scales, they must sell the stock. Some people will think this is too simple. The challenge is you do not do it. Do not believe you share his friends look at the history of the trading year, if that time you bought the stock to be caught, Jiucheng nine in ten days you buy the average line. If that time you just sell the stock to Caikong, Jiucheng nine in ten days you are the average line and sell. I do a stock in a foreign country, hold for a few months, up 70% (Foreign forget incredibly), this mode is used. Because here the information barrier. Not gossip, do not see the charts, only hand-counted five, ten average. Sometimes making money is that simple. If you insist on that principle, would earn less pay. If you feel from the truth hidden behind this, your stock levels will reach a new height.
example, you are now short positions, ready to buy stocks, you must wait until the online stock up to ten days before they can consider buying the stock. Some stock investors have once asked a certain line in ten days, can buy. Also asked the highest price the stock is usually ten days online, buying it not trap? Please note that I did not say in ten days will make the online purchase. In fact, this is just one of the prerequisites. Another implied condition that the stock should have a larger room for growth. In my view at least 20 % of the profit margin Caixing. But whether the increase in space is probably the most difficult question to answer. Many factors involved, such as: how the general trend (bull market, bear market, adjust cities),
Strongest in the history of the 10 ghost story II, whether the subject matter, making power from the ten antennas, the distance of history locked in place ... and in different stages, the proportion of various factors is different. Difficult to repeat them here one by one. The final decision will depend on your personal experiences and feelings, and sometimes also on point of luck. Buying decision should be under the most difficult. This is what I say buy with caution. No purchase is guaranteed profits, in fact, the only chance of winning size. Once purchased, the situation is simple ( in fact, is not simple to do.) If you buy on the stock continued to rise, you wait until the stock fell below ten antenna before the final profits, or has been held. This is what I said, bought the right to be defensible. If you bought the wrong, the stock fell below ten to the antenna a few days, you must sell at a loss, or open ended. That is sold to firm. In fact, this simple method behind the antenna contains a lot of ten stock market know-how. Friends of shares you are interested, I have time to do so can elaborate on the merits.
the 10th line method based on the average
Today I talk about the ten simple theoretical antenna method, or why the law ten chance of winning a larger antenna? Why should first analyze more than a decade to buy the antenna. You can look at a stock's rise and fall process, apparently in the process of buying the stock up, only thing is wrong (the highest point), in the process of buying the stock down, only thing is the (lowest point.) Therefore, we believe that the process of buying the stock rose greater chance of winning (assuming 90%), while technology shares in the ten days is the meaning of line stock is rising, so buy stocks online in ten chance of winning a larger (90%) And if any of the investors that bought special antennas in ten chance of winning on the small ( 10%), at least in the short term the probability of a large quilt.
then analyze why the stock fell below ten antennas have to wait until it sell? Most of the hands of investors saw the stock rise by 20% - 30% or even 10%, ranging from antenna to quickly throw breaking ten. If you look at trap, that is, the antenna can not bear to break the ten liquidate indemnities. Practices law with the ten opposite the antenna. We might compare, assuming we have ten dollars to buy a stock, there are two possible cases, one stock continue to rise until after 15 yuan broke down ten antennas; Second, continue to fall to 5 million, two assume that the probability of the situation rather (if you buy ten antennas increase the probability of lower). To ten antenna method, the situation is bad when a Powei to sell, I lose a little (if 1 million), when I make a good 5 yuan, in general I make 4 yuan per share; their way to do that, the situation is not good pay 5 yuan, the situation is good and they can only make 2 million, put together pay 3 yuan. Ten antenna method is clearly superior. This fact is emphasized
know how to control the risk, once you buy will earn for the best, to make up once the losses may be incurred to buy the wrong. This two-step together, the ten days average method is even greater chance of winning. Some investors think the stock price fell when the s cheaper to buy a rose, small profits and very worried about fall further back, wanted to sell, could not bear to sell another trap, and finally bound to pay less money and more, this is the psychological weaknesses. Reason many people know, but many people just can not. In addition to the necessary theoretical training, cultivation of the mind is also very important. To make big money and can ignore the short-money gains and losses, rational analysis, unbiased look at market, are we not to pursue the highest level of hand-fried it?
the 10th average method and the theory of
fish a lot of friends read my article and asked, if the average at the 10th, have to wait until the price rose to ten days to buy online, often have lost come from this period of low profits; to sell below after ten antennas, but also loss of down from the highest price that a profit. In fact , this is the famous fish reflects the essence of the theory. That the reserve price in the stock area, the situation is less clear, at higher risk. Belongs to the head, not eating. Or Bibi as well. Up to that stage of the stock up into the clear,
Anything about the ````` despair ~ ~ - Qzone log, the risk of smaller chance of winning big (fish) before buying. After rising in the price segment, though still may have room to rise, but the risk is higher, as tails, and it is not involved .
Many people know the truth, must eat fish body. But how do know which is the fish? Ten days moving average method is to provide an objective method to determine fish. When the stock price up from the bottom through the ten antennas, we can assume that the head has now, the back must be why the fish, just fish the size of the problem, so you can buy. Stock price continued to rise in line ten days, the fish continue to show in, but failed to see the whole fish, of course, can not sell. Until the stock price fell below the last ten antennas, we can consider that fish are present. A fish that is very clear, For what does not go truth. There is a wrong approach is: when in the hands of the stock after a period of up to think about it, to sell the stock, saying let others eat fish behind it. But you said the fish counted up 30%, if the last doubling it? You said the fish doubling operator, last rose tenfold if it? Some of the recent rise in Hong Kong red chips ten times, so you do not necessarily keep the last. Actually, it is very simple, the fish must be confirmed until the fish exposed! Visible stocks and as long as the right to adhere to the principle of not required to have a strong imagination, like the huge profits.
the 10th line method and the average length of short-term investments
ten days of a moving average method is not in favor of implication sound short-term speculation. Poor generally have to do a short three cases:
First, the normal course of the bull market Going retreated, that is , when the index is overbought and selling on, retreated after the repurchase. This is really Caikong greater risk, because the bull market of the Going sometimes surprisingly violent. Overbought overbought and then get nothing new. Even if you are out of the way, when to retrieve the goods are also a problem. Because the adjustment of the time can not be the same, difficult to grasp.
Second, during the bear market bounce fell. When the index is oversold when you buy, sell later rebound . This situation is similar to the one. Even if the bounce back, the difference is limited. Under adverse operating risk, like a knife licking blood. Does not decisively settle the case, the little profit will come to naught even apply, with heavy losses. The ten short-term fluctuations in the antenna of the law is not fixed, maintaining the status quo.
Third stage of adjustment balance long and short market volatility. Rallies shipping, bargain hunting. But once the long-short winner , the formation of a breakthrough. The result is not Caikong is stuck. Ten antennas method handling is in the region after the stock fell below ten antennas, the first to sell out again, wait and see. Break down if the last is, of course,
How to print the draft into electronic draft - Qzo, glad that you can escape. If confirmed break up, you can still catch up again. But the loss is little price difference. In general, the more short-term stock market movements, the more difficult to master. Short-term, the more chances of mistakes. For a little petty, take big risks is not worth it. Do not like based on the medium to long term trend.
was asked whether in the long-term investments have to be holding one or two years be considered? Definitely not. Ten antenna method focuses on differences rather than holding a large length of time. But generally speaking, stock prices rose sharply hands take longer to drive. In fact for a long time holding at high risk of speculative market higher. Ask if they can earn several times a few days, so why wait ten years or eight years it?
the 10th average method and the good fortune
stock market (especially China's stock market) is full of opportunities, but also full of traps. A more rational market, the probability should be half and half. How to make money in the stock market, in fact, how to seize opportunities and due to avoid the trap. Ten days is the average line method provides a means to avoid danger.
first say to avoid fierce. In a bear market phase, the market may be presented in different ways down, grind, plunge, rebound, fall further. Experience of investors saw a little light on that bottom to catch a rebound, but do not want to get the rebound peak, fell victim to become the next wave; clever I must take some of the oversold indicators to do when buying a rebound, but these differences generally small, the risk is very high. Ten antenna method used, only a ten days before they can consider buying online can filter out 80% of the risk of buying such errors, most of the remaining 20% can be integrated filter out other factors , even bought the wrong case, you The second principle can also stop in time. So this method can avoid possible risks. It is no exaggeration to say that if you strictly enforce the ten antenna method, a stock market crash anywhere in the world do not you stand on. Besides becoming
Kyrgyzstan. Once you buy on the stock, on the guitar boat, you can not easily let go. Some investors see the stock up for a while or to a psychological level to cast, as well as the investors in the higher vibration adjustment process, could hold, was Xipan washed out, while the ten antennas provide an objective way to see the city so that we less susceptible to the impact of market sentiment, does not break line is not selling, are not easily washed out. Of course you want to take a more stable, you can choose 15,30 antennas, but lose some in the top of the more profitable it. Ten days is actually the result of a choice.
Throughout China's stock market, due to the deep-seated institutional problems, most of the investment value of the stock is hard to say, the lack of long-term investment funds, but it should be noted that the external short-term hot money is abundant , causing the stock market or non-cattle Bear, is not peaked, the next is not the bottom. China's stock also has a high speculative value. In this context, the 10th line method can not only generate a high amount of speculative price difference , but also to avoid the high degree of speculative risk. A general shareholders are biased for sound investment strategies. Of course I can not deny the number of investors according to their own circumstances, to take a more aggressive strategy, they are willing to take greater risks, if you earn more money is reasonable. Otherwise, if everyone do it at ten antenna method, the stock would not have a turnover below the ten antennas, and how we ship it? Our brokers, exchanges, listed companies but also by who is going to support? This is the charm of the market.
the 10th average method and the flow is
many people know that the theoretical advantage of the opportunity. It emphasizes the stock market is doing can not be too subjective, to obey the direction of trend. According to the words of foreign devil is sell. When the stock price ten days online, you can view the market is up, you can buy.
Many people say I look at the chart, but also to understand technical analysis, a technical school. mature theory of the use of technology I do not know there are two uses of homeopathic and contrarian. Take the ten days average for this indicator, a usage as ten antenna method, is a homeopathic operation. Another typical use (you can Any one found in the book of technical analysis) is when the stock price far lower than the ten antennas (eg 10%) can be bought, when the stock price much higher than the ten antennas (eg 10%) can be sold, bought this to do over The method is obviously an oversold market trends and to.
another example, the trend line theory. I use it is when the stock price in an upward trend in the run-time can be considered in taking an upward trend in stock; When stock prices fell in a running track, you can take the downward trend in that stock. This theory can be judged as a method of trend. But I never used as the basis for specific transactions. but I know some of the charts camp, it is like to carry some of the historical chart in the top draw on a variety of rail, the next track, support lines, resistance lines, and tend to fall back to support the stock line to buy, sell up to the resistance line, in fact, this has been unconsciously fall into the scope of the operation against the market trend. In fact, this method of death is mechanical matting table, a bit obsessed. I will not speak each root of each high and low even up the support line, the reliability of the resistance line how, even if its a technical sense, in each particular case, its role is difficult to estimate how much. In fact, up in the big city, any one technical resistance will eventually be broken; in the market is down, no technical support will be dropped past the end bit.
the 10th and Technical Analysis of the average line method
First we look at how the stock is formed? a simple fact the stock price is trading behavior of investors from the stock the sum of the decision. a time to buy volume = sales volume, stock prices virtually unchanged; buy volume> sales volume, stock price up; buy volume <sales volume, stock down. So the question boils down to how an investor to buy or sell decisions. First, only stock investors to analyze the basic factors. microstructure , such as earnings per share, net assets, earnings, profit forecast, etc., the macro such as industry analysis, economic environment, the stock market environment. Some of these factors is conducive to price increases, others are not conducive to price increases . our analysis is based on the circumstances of the time virtually the positive and negative factors to the psychological balance by adding weight.
cite a simple example, you may buy a bull market in the poor quality of stock, try to sell a big bear market in quality stocks. This is because you weigh on the market environment is much larger than the proportion of micro-stocks trade-off weighting factors.
a quantified expression is:
trading behavior of stock prices = = (I * psychological balance fundamentals proportion of I);
a fundamental analysis are likely to be judged by the way stock prices. But its shortcomings are obvious.
1. at a certain time to master all the basic factors is very difficult. give an example. dealer in the domestic stock investors may be more concerned about a fundamental factor. Some stock investors have heard that making a killing on the inside, that the dealer will be able to follow the money. In fact, the size of the dealer also points, five million village, there is one hundred million of the village. bankers are not the same style. Some eat slowly pull slowly (slow collection of slow high), Some fast food quick pull, and some do not pull light to eat. Some people will ask Is there light food makers do not pull it? tell you the truth, the author has done such a village. Such a village abroad, period of time, stock prices strong, then a huge plate, so you and go long, suddenly no indirect drive, the share price decline. study it from the holdings of an institution to certain shares of stock to buy over the natural not buy. such a situation known to outsiders is actually very difficult . off than I previously did a share, up around 70%, which lasted several months, and there is no change in fundamentals. So far, brokers say there are two, one acquisition Second, the company issued warrants, so to pull stock prices . but they were not confirmed. The speculation has flourished in the country, the dealer can easily create a theme to give his own views. or there is no subject matter, but also engage in a Fried theme, because there are making itself is a subject! Obviously if you have to find a clear support for the fundamental factors in stock prices to buy stocks, you are likely to miss many opportunities to make money. 2. Even if you are in a period of time to master all the factors, but these factors are constantly changing, you can not fully grasp the change. such as a stock based on the profitability of your case it should judge the value of 10-15 million, but recently it has risen to 25. One possible factor is the company's profits greater growth.
3. Even if you can master the basic elements of any period of time, you can not fully grasp the psychological factors on the weight of the investing public, as this weight with time, place vary, for example in the country for some time, Clearly the psychological weight is much greater than in the past. so you can easily understand why the same fundamentals of any under total there are more differences between the short side, this is so long and short sides of the same basic factors have different psychological weight.
technical analysis does not proceed from the analysis of underlying factors, but avoiding the more simple analysis of stock price movement itself. In fact, it does not analyze the internal factors stock price movement, it is only on the share price movement a description of it. relative to the base factors, psychological factors, and many other aspects of uncertainty, the stock price movement itself is very clear, can be clearly shown on the chart. and all the combined result of internal factors from the stock price will eventually reflected. In fact, recognition of technical analysis has its price at any time be reasonable, if you think a stock price is not reasonable, it is likely you ignore some of the basic factors.
course, I This is not the complete denial of fundamental analysis, fundamental analysis can not I just say that the first diagnostic tools for trading. plane based on the premise of the technology, the basic analysis can be a good auxiliary tool. or you can insert the formula in the previous A technical factors, and assigned at any time to the maximum weight that can also technical analysis and fundamental analysis together organically.
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